Cup Series – Texas Motor Speedway – O’Reilly Auto Parts 500

In Nascar by Chris BeschLeave a Comment

These week we head to the heat of Texas for the O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. This will be a 334 laps (500 mile) race, in the dead middle of Summer in Texas. This will be another 2 or 3 dom race and getting the right mix of doms and place differential guys will be key again.

Dominators:

Ryan Blaney- Blaney has been a beast at Texas and 1.5 mile tracks recently. He is starting 2nd and might be my highest owned driver of the slate. He will be very popular but for good reason. In the 550hp package, he ranks first in speed on 1.5 mile tracks. If Blaney can get ahead of Almirola at the start, he should lead a good bit of this race.

Aric Almirola – Last week AA surprised everyone when he lead 90 laps at Kentucky. Can he do it again this week? AA is still in play, he should lead some laps early and he is on a tear right now with 6 straight top 8 finishes.

Kevin Harvick- Harvick might be the hottest driver in Nascar right now. He is just better than everyone else, and now we head to a track that he is very good at. Harvick has 22 top 10s in 34 races here with 3 wins. He will be popular tomorrow as well.

Chase Elliott- All Star race winner Elliott is looking to pick up his 2nd win of the week at Texas. Though he has never won here, he does have 5 top 10s in 8 races and is showing speed in this package. He rolls off 8th and I look for him to be contending near the end.

Martin Truex Jr – I think a lot of people will go Hamlin here, but Truex has been good on 1.5 tracks this year, especially at Atalanta (finished 3rd). Truex had the Kentucky race won last week until the late caution came out. I look for him to build on his momentum and push for a win here.

Alex Bowman – Bowman doesnt really qualify as a dominator or place differential guy, but i wanted to mention him. He is starting 12th and should be low owned in this price range. He ranks 6th in speed at 1.5 tracks and has shown speed so far this year in the 550hp package. I think Bowman could be a sneaky GPP play this week.

Best of the Rest:

Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Brad Keselowski
Joey Logano
Kurt Busch

Place Differential:

Christopher Bell- We are finally getting a bit of a discount on Bell this week, at 9,100 on DK. Bell has been starting deep in the field recently and been putting up top 12 finishes. He has shown good speed recently and should continue that tomorrow. Great cash play, and might be worth a pivot off of in GPPs, but he is still a solid play there as well.

Jimmy Johnson- Johnson hasnt been great this year, with only 3 top 10 finishes on the season. But tomorrow he is starting 20th and sits at 9K on DK. He has a great floor built in and i think he can contend for a top 10 even top 8 finish here tomorrow.

Erik Jones- Man has Jones been burning people recently? Jones will probably come in as a higher owned play in cash due to starting spot and price (though not as cheap as he has been). Jones is either a top 5 finisher or he doesnt hit value, rarely is it every in between. Jones is a solid cash game play and i wont hate on anyone that goes this route, but i think i am passing on him tomorrow in cash and will be a bit lower in GPPs than most.

William Byron– Byron is always a good 1.5 mile track driver that always has top 10 upside. He is starting 18th and if he has a clean race i think we can see him finish in top 10.

Clint Bowyer – Another week of racing and another week of Bowyer making my write up. Bowyer’s price is low this week, like really low. He is starting 17th and while he hasnt been the best on 1.5’s this year, he does have a good car and if he can keep it clean (sometimes harder for him) then he should be in for a good finish. He does have 12 top 10s here. I like him as a pivot off Jones in this range.

Michael McDowell – Mr. Cash punt is back in play again this week. Starting 34th and all he does is finish higher than where he started. He wont go out there and win any races but he will try to stay out of wrecks and finish higher than where he started, great cash game play tomorrow.

John Hunter Nemechek – Man did Nemechek burn some people last week. But like in all DFS sports, you have to have a short memory. Nemechek has 3 top 20 finishes at 1.5 tracks this season and its slim picking down in this range this week. He is a solid salary saver to help fit that extra big boy in.

Daniel Suarez – Bet when you opened this article you didnt expect to see Suarez make it, but here me out. While Suarez is in a lot worse equipment this year, he does have 2 top 5 finishes here. This race is not normally run in this kind of heat, so the track will be different tomorrow, and if that is the case then we might see more cautions then normal. Suarez’s best finishes this year have been in races like that. Now this isnt a slam dunk play, its risky, but its one that you use in a GPP and pivot off Nemeechek and hope cautions fly out and Suarez moves up the leader board and finishes inside the top 22.

Best of the Rest:

Ryan Preece
Chris Buescher
Corey Lajoie (GPP)
Ty Dillon
Matt Kenseth

Prize Picks:

These are 4 picks on Prize Picks that can be used together or combined with other sports.

Truex – Top play of the 4, if he goes to anything over 35.5 points its a move to under
Wallace – as long as Wallace stays at 18.5 or higher, he is a lock for the under
Johnson- You Can keep the over for Johnson all the way up to 33.5, then it becomes the under.
Hamlin – I think Hamlin has a rougher day than most, so keep Denny as under till it reaches 32.

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