Devin’s Daily Dive 5/11

In MLB by devinLeave a Comment

Hey everyone, welcome to our third installment of Devin’s Daily Dive. What we will be doing here is breaking down a few of the top projected teams. Today we will be looking at a team from the early slate and a team from the main slate.

  • Boston Red Sox- Implied total of 6.2. The Red Sox are taking on King Felix and the Seattle Mariners. King Felix is hardly a king any more with a 4.73 xFIP and 40% hard contact rate. Felix throws an array of pitches, but mainly throws a curve and sinker. To lefties, he throws the curve 34% of the time and the sinker 31% of the time. To righties, he relies a bit more on the sinker, throwing it 33% of the time and the curve 26% of the time. 
  • Boston lefties are in an especially good spot. Felix is giving up a whopping .369 wOBA and .266 ISO to lefties. Putting Benintendi, Moreland and Devers in a great spot. All 3 have decent success against the curve as well, with all 3 having a wOBA over .300 and Devers/Moreland an ISO over .200. A sneaky play here is Jackie Bradley Jr. Who, while not having great stats, profiles extremely well against the sinker and curve ball and his history against Felix shows just that. 
  • Boston righties aren’t in as good a spot, but still great plays. Felix is giving up .339 wOBA and .167 ISO to righties. Mookie and JD are always great plays and that is no different here. But don’t sleep on Xander and Chavis as lower owned gpp plays. 
  • History wise, Felix has decent history against the Red Sox, though it is important to remember he is not the same pitcher he once was.
  • And lastly, lets take a look at the Red Sox numbers as well as Felix’s wOBA and ISO against. These are all 365 day running totals and based on handedness. If a stats is blank or NA, it means the sample size is not big enough.
  • San Diego Padres- Implied Total of 5.1. The Padres are at Coors field taking on Jon Gray of the Rockies. Jon Gray is a very up and down pitcher who when on, can be lights out, but with shaky command, he can also get blown up as evidence by 5 earned runs in both of his last 2 starts. Gray has a 3.69 xFIP and gives up a fair amount of hard and medium contact. He throws a 94.86 MPH fastball 53% of the time to lefties and 48% to righties. Utilizing a slider as his put out pitch throwing it 29% to lefties and 37% to righties. 
  • Padres are projected to only start one lefty, Eric Hosmer. Hosmer has a .400 wOBA and .160 ISO against 94-96 MPH fastballs and a .249 wOBA and .087 ISO against the slider. Hosmer will need to jump on an early fastball to find any success. 
  • Of Padres lefties, Machado, Renfroe and Myers profile the best against 94-96 MPH fastballs. Both Renfroe and Myers have .300+ wOBA while Manny has a .402 wOBA. All three have .250+ ISO, with Renfroe leading the way with a .288 ISO. Renfroe and Machado also have a bit of success against the slider with .300+ wOBA’s and .225+ ISO. Franmil Reyes has big numbers against the slider with a .406 wOBA and .281 ISO. 
  • History wise, Jon Gray has dominated a few Padres bats but struggled against others. Look for the Padres to play a few of these successful guys at the top of the lineup.
  • And lastly, lets take a look at the Padres numbers as well as Gray’s wOBA and ISO against. These are all 365 day running totals and based on handedness. If a stats is blank or NA, it means the sample size is not big enough.

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