Devin’s Daily Dive 5/16

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Hey everyone, welcome to another installment of Devin’s Daily Dive. What we will be doing here is breaking down a 1 or 2 of the top projected teams. Today we will be breaking down the Kansas City Royals on the early slate.

  • Kansas City Royals- Implied total of 5.1 runs. The Royals are at home taking on Lance Lynn and the Texas Rangers. Lynn has a 4.22 xFIP while giving up 37% hard contact and 43% medium contact. Lynn especially struggles against lefties, giving up .338 wOBA. He leans heavily on a 93 mph fastball, throwing it 45% to both righties and lefties. His 2nd main pitch is a sinker, which he throws around 29% to both righties and lefties. 
  • As mentioned above, Lynn struggles more with lefties. The Royals could potentially throw out 3 lefties and 2 switch hitters today. Of KC lefties, Ryan O’Hearn by far profiles the best against 92-94 mph fastballs. With a whopping .562 wOBA and .648 ISO, though in a smaller sample size. O’Hearn also hits the sinker at a respectable rate. Adalberto Mondesi has great numbers against the sinker with a .516 wOBA and .319 ISO while Alex Gordon has a respectable .389 wOBA and .232 ISO. Lopez/Mondesi/Gordon/Hamilton also have stolen base upside. 
  • While KC righties are not in as good a spot, they still have a few guys who profile well. Whit Merrifield and Hunter Dozier have ISO’s over .200 against a 92-94 mph fastball, while Jorge Soler leads the way with a .316 ISO. Dozier also hits the sinker well with a .412 wOBA and .282 ISO. Once again, some more stolen base upside here as well.
  • History wise, Lynn has been fairly successful against the Royals, though important to remember Lynn is on the back half of his career.
  • And lastly, lets take a look at the Royals numbers as well as Lynn’s wOBA and ISO against. These are all 365 day running totals and based on handedness. If a stats is blank or NA, it means the sample size is not big enough.

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