Welcome to another week of Tennis! Day 2 of WTA Doha, Qatar and ATP Dubai, UAE. After this mornings 16 match slate, main slate brings us an even larger, 19 match slate.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden’s in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn’t outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Now that you have a better feel for Tennis DFS, let’s dig in.
Soonwoo Kwon- Kwon is a -225 favorite at only 8.6k, which is very cheap for that large of a favorite. He is taking on lucky loser Taro Daniel. Neither guy is exactly killing it on hard courts, but Kwon has a decisive advantage. In main draw, hard court matches over the last 12 months, Kwon is 7-8 (47%) while Daniel is only 2-5 (29%). If we include challenger events, Kwon still holds an advantage. Both guys have won 3 of their last 5 matches and both lost their last match. But Kwon has much better wins on his resume this year with wins over quality players like Raonic while Daniel isn't playing the same level of competition.
Note: Draftkings pricing does allow for a a few different all favorite lineups utilizing no worse than a -125 favorite (meaning Vegas gives them about a 55% chance to win, so slightly better than a pick em). Your other option is to take an underdog to open up some salary, which we will discuss an underdog option below. Keep in mind you need all of your players to win if you expect to win big. In cash you can typically get away with a loss or 2, but still the goal is all wins.
With the above note in mind, we are going to take a look at a cheap under dog who has the potential for the upset and opens up salary.
Usue Maitane Arconada- There are some pick em under dog options (McHale is 4-1 vs. Davis) on the board that I certainly wouldn't blame you for going with instead of going with a +160 under dog in Arconada. But there are reasons to consider the huge savings you get with Arconada here. She is taking on fellow qualifier and fellow American Caroline Dolehide. On paper this matchup is much closer than Vegas suggests. In main draw, hard court matches over the last 12 months, Arconada is 10-7 (59%) while Dolehide is 9-7 (56%). If we include all tour levels, Arconada is 34-15 (69%) while Dolehide is 25-13 (66%). We also have the fact that these 2 met almost exactly 2 years ago at a hard court ITF event and Arconada won in straight sets.
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck!