As we get deeper in to the week and the slates get smaller, we will no longer be providing picks but instead providing a few matches with upset potential. You have to pick multiple under dogs on these small slates due to pricing. Before we dig in, a few notes about tennis DFS.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden’s in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn’t outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Now that you have a better feel for Tennis DFS, let’s dig in.
Belinda Bencic Vs. Svetlana Kuznetsova (+130)- With Kuznetsova being the smallest under dog on the board, she should see some ownership. These 2 just met on February 10th with Bencic winning in straight sets, though a close match. It is hard to play someone twice within such a short time frame and often we see the results flip. Bencic does hold the decisive H2H history between these 2 but in general it is very close between these 2. In main draw, hard court matches over the last 12 months, Bencic is 24-11 (69%) while Kuznetsova is 12-7 (63%).
Thiago Moura Monteiro Vs. Roberto Carballes Baena (+150)- Baena is another player that should see a fair share of ownership tomorrow as the 2nd smallest under dog and for $100 cheaper than Kuznetsova. These 2 have met 3 times before on Clay and all 3 were close with Monteiro prevailing in each. But they haven't played since 2017, and it is actually Baena who is having the better 12 months. In main draw, clay court matches over the last 12 months, Monteiro is 6-9 (40%) while Baena is 12-9 (57%).
Aryna Sabalenka Vs. Saisai Zheng (+255)- The odds should probably be a bit closer in this one. Zheng is coming off a huge win over world number 6, Kike Bertens. These two also have had a very similar 12 months. In main draw, hard court matches over the last 12 months, Sabalenka is 24-13 (65%) while Zheng is 25-14 (64%). These 2 also met twice last season, both on hard court, and split wins.
Bonus: I don't have numbers to support it, but Jan-Lennard Struff is playing sensational Tennis this week. Beating a quality Bautista-Agut and then dismantling Basilavshvili (only dropped 1 game). He also beat Stefanos Tsitsipas two of 3 matches in 2019, including the last 2.
Ultimately this is a very tough slate with lots of tight matches that are coin flips. Play smart!
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck!