EPL Monday Soccer + Showdown Bonus $$!! 7/20

In Soccer by V12Leave a Comment

ODDS

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

Brighton vs Newcastle

**UPDATE:  Our favorite cheap young talented burner Tariq Lamptey is starting for BHA and I really like his price tag.  Pascal Gross is in and he should get the majority of love and be a LOCK in CASH games in both formats.  This drops Aaron Mooy’s value a bit for me.  Troussard is in and playing the 10 attacking midfield position so I think his assist value boosts.  Matt Ritchie gets the start so expect him to be a popular CASH game target and we also see St. Maximin at right wing.  He has big upside and is blazing fast and should give Mooy and Burn fits on that defensive side.**

Game notes:  Depending on if we see Pascal Gross or not for Brighton will make me really go from liking Brighton here to loving them.  I think he brings a dynamic to the team that makes them more aggressive and willing to utilize his playmaking to accelerate their aggression level.  They would be able to press Newcastle more on heavy touches and counter attack with Maupay and Murray.  Leandro Troussard is an elite attacking option also for BHA who has a great CASH game type of profile with a GPP ceiling.  Matt Ritchie should be on SETs for NEW and I really like this spot for him.  He should be able to grab plenty of corners and free kicks even though BHa don’t allow a ton in open play.  Newcastle is fine playing the SET piece game as dead balls allow them to get a Goal opportunity.  BHA have some solid defensive stats and both games on the Main slate will be low scoring.  I think you have to target the SET piece takers and be smart about taking high floor players. Miguel Almiron is a sneaky way to get a high floor player for a decent salary in to your line.  Newcastle is a live dog here and won’t get steam rolled, but I do prefer more exposure to BHA.  If Ritchie was for some reason out Jonjo Shelvey will get a monopoly of SETs.

Sheffield United vs Everton

**UPDATE:  No John Fleck starting means Oliver Norwood will get SET pieces but Fleck should come off the bench at some point.  Gylfi Sigurdsson is in for EVE which puts a bit of a damper on the Digne value but he is still a CASH game lock.  Siggy gets PK duty so he could get a troll goal here.  I still like SHU a lot more than EVE.  Sidibe is starting right back for Everton and he loves to get forward.  He is not as skilled technically as Coleman but he is more athletic and sound defensively.  If picking one wingback to target for SHU I lean Baldock.**

Game Notes:  I have been getting more and more on the Everton train here as they seemed to be moving towards a more concise team that is better in open play and playing without Gylfi Sigurdsson in the starting 11 allows better defensive midfield control.  Enter the injury bug and we get the Everton team that is very scary in their fitness levels and ability to keep the ball in the offensive half.  Sheffield excels in pressuring teams by drawing pressure then exposing them on the counter.  They invited Chelsea in to pressure and SHU responded by tagging them for 4 goals in a clean sheet victory.  Everton does not have the best discipline either as Richarlison can get a bit hotheaded at times and this affects the team as a whole.  Lucas Digne will be a lock in CASH games but to be perfectly honest I really do not like this spot for EVE.  I think the struggles of Dominic Calvert-Lewin continue as the Sheffield Defense will not allow him to be an anchor for the offensive push from EVE and Richarlison will have to deal with plenty of solid sound tackling defenders and not let him play wide.  The inexperience of Gordon on the wing makes me really like both wingbacks for SHU in Baldock and Stevens.  John Fleck should be back starting for SHU as he made an appearance off the bench this weekend.  He is a real game changer for SHU and opens up so many options.  Oliver Norwood is still Solid in CASH but he may lose a bunch of dead ball SET chances to Fleck.  My GPP favorite move is stacking the SHU offensive attack with a McGoldrick or McBurnie play at F.  Sander Berge may not be great for DFS but he will be the primary reason the EVE midfield struggles today as the soft spot in the defense for Everton will be the young inexperienced Braithwaite in the back four.  I am going to be bold and say SHU easily handle EVE today with a lean towards a clean sheet type of win unless EVE can get some SET piece luck.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for DFS soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you DFS points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

Showdown Special

Wolverhampton vs Crystal Palace

**UPDATE:  We have no Luka in the lineup for Crystal Palace which probably results in James McCarthy taking SET piece duty.  Do not confuse him with James McArthur as he is more of a holding midfielder.  Wilfred Zaha could see some Set piece action here or even Joel Ward but I would lean McCarthy.  Joao Moutino is starting which takes Ruben Neves SET piece duty away.  I personally think Moutinho sucks and does not have any value outside SET pieces but he is very very in play for CASH.   I could see a Moutinho fade route if you went heavy on goal scorers.  Raul Jimenez is a Fanduel lock for me with Wilfred Zaha right behind him.  Willy Boly and Conor Coady are also excellent on the FD side of things.  Doherty and Jonny are starting at wingback but my favorite play for both sites is probably Adama Traore.  He is a game changer for WOL and has scoring and assist upside.  I am going to have him 100% in lineups today and look to stack the Wolves.**

Game Notes:  This game should be exciting as we get some solid rotation for both teams.  Patrick Van Aaholt was stretchered off this weekend and that is a huge blow for CP.  They should have some defensive changes which should make Raul Jimenez salivate at his goal chances.  Lock him in on FD today and if we get no Joao Moutinho then Ruben Neves will be dominating SET pieces unless we got some Morgan Gibbs-White.  I don’t particularly like the Podence/Neto combo compared to the Adama Traore/ Diego Jota combo we usually get from WOL so I will be interested to see who starts.  Doherty and Jonny will be great CASH game options with a bit of upside today in a single game setting.  Luka Milivojevic should dominate SET pieces for Crystal Palace here and will look to get play in to Wilfred Zaha and Andres Townsend.  The former in Zaha is going to be popular as he should since his talent will be probably the best on the pitch today.  If you lean to the CP side he is a necessary piece for you today in stacks.  I see a 2-1 type of game today but this could easily get out of hand if the Wolves show up in top form and with their best side starting.

PrizePicks Soccer Bet of the Day

  • Wayne Szcesny – Under 6.5 ( I would be comfortable playing the under all the way to 5.5.)  Juventus has been giving up too many goals Lazio is a great offensive team and for Wayne to go over 6.5 he would need to basically shutout Lazio and that is just not Juventus’ game.
  • Dominic Calvert-Lewin – Under 4.5 (I would be good taking him at under 4 also)  You can see my distaste for the recent form of DCL and I think in soccer form and matchup is a huge factor.  He is not a high shot volume guy and he would need goal or assist equity to beat that line.
  • Flex play or go big and Powerplay this one.  Confidence Level (7/10)

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

Leave a Comment