EPL Saturday Early Bird and Main Slate Soccer 7/11

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ODDS

 

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups(Early)

Norwich City vs West Ham

 

Game notes:  For Early Bird two game slate Emiliano Buendia will be a lock if he is starting as he takes majority SET pieces for NOR and has a great game that notes some upside.  Todd Cantwell is also a great CASH play and if you want to take a real flyer Teemu Pukki could break his duck and net a goal versus this very weak WHU defense. Onel Hernandez is priced up but is still a solid CASH play.  Jarrod Bowen is the breakout man for West Ham and has been absolutely phenomenal of late and well worth a pay up of nearly 10k here on Classic.  Michael Antonio may be borderline CASH worthy as WHU needs a win and 3 points here badly.  

Watford vs Newcastle

 

Game Notes:  Our second match of the EPL Early slate has a visiting Newcastle team with not much to play for against a Watford team that must get some points here to avoid relegation.  Will Hughes will be the man on SET pieces here but honestly Watford does not have much in terms SET pieces that deems making Hughes a priority.  Ismaela Sarr would be a better piece to target since the attacking upside he possesses makes his ceiling much higher than Hughes.  Femenia and Masina both are fullbacks worth consideration here as both have solid CASH floors.  NEW should have Jonjo Shelvey starting and without Matt Ritchie in the lineup he could get all the SET pieces.. Miguel Almiron and St. Maxim are both players to consider if you play some Newcastle guys but like I said before Watford needs this game and may be pressing.

Expected Lineups(Main)

Liverpool vs Burnley

**Update:  No TAA today but we do have Salah starting which actually makes him a must play since he should have SET duty.  Neco Williams is starting at RB and has good CASH value.  Curtis Jones is also in and is a nice showdown piece but for classic I would only play Salah here or Neco/Robertson and leave room for Man City.**

Game Notes:. Liverpool will look to go after the century mark and eclipse the 100 point mark for the EPL season.  With the EPL title already clinched there is not much reason for LIV to press here.  I can legitimately see a 1-0 or 2-0 type of win here and outside of TAA (Trent Alexander-Arnold) for classic I don’t see any must haves on the 3 gamer as I feel you have to stack Man City.  Mohammed Salah is always a great pay option and the matchup is still soft for Pool.  Burnley has a solid defense so temper the blowout expectations here.

Sheffield United vs Chelsea

**Update:  Abraham starting at striker and we get Jorginho starting also for CHE.  Willian should get SET pieces here.  Az/James are the starting FB pair.  Osborn is a great pricing play for SHU.**

Game Notes:  Chelsea probably has the toughest of the 3 matches for the favorites.  SHU is no slouch defensively and Chelsea will have a tough time cracking this safe, but Chelsea is on another level right now and with Willian and Christian Pulisic “The American Hero” leading the attack we may see fireworks. The issue is on Classic we still have to prioritize Man City players so I am not sure how intrigued I will be to pay up for more than one Chelsea piece.  The fullback pairing of Azpicuelta/James/Alonso/Emerson (whomever starts) is the most intriguing of plays for me on a single line.  I would say Chelsea or Liverpool are both in great position for a clan sheet also.  Oliver Norwood will gab sets and Ben Osborn could get some if Norwood was absent.

Brighton vs Manchester City

Game Notes:  I think playing each game as a showdown allows you some nice builds and good exposure to the favorites but if you play the 3 game classic slate you will need Kevin DeBruyne and there gang to get you where you want to go!  I think you definitely start there and see what else fits.  For showdowns you prob need to look at a 5/1 or 4/2 stack for each favorite in showdowns.  I can’t see playing anyone but KDB cpt in CASH games.  Rihad Mahrez is also an elite option on both slates classic and showdown.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for Dfs soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you Dfs points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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