EPL Showdown Friday 7/17 West Ham vs Watford

In Soccer by V12Leave a Comment

ODDS

 

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on. set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**We will have Prizepicks plays included in some of our articles so be sure to check these out!  Also be sure to use our promo code to get 25% match on your first deposit up to $1000!)

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

West Ham vs Watford

**UPDATE:  Both lineups are as expected with the only major change is Ben Johnson starting over Fredericks at Right Back for WHU.  Johnson is min priced and should be popular as a filler in CASH games.  We have seen EPL teams rotate some youth in in recent games so no surprise here.  If things turn south I expect we see maybe masuaku come in as Fredericks is not on the bench either.  I think we see Perrerya today at some point for WAT and he is very dynamic ad a game changer.  Since he is not starting he is not in play unless you want a sub 1% GPP pivot.  I think Antonio is a FD special and a must and I will hang my hat on him and Bowen as I build today!**

Game notes:   This game is one that should be close as each team is vying to finish the season strong and avoid relegation.  Both teams are tied at 34 points on the league table and sit 3 points clear of danger.  WHU has the goal differential in case of a tie here but both teams should be looking for 3 points with a victory.  WHU has dominated the previous two meetings combining for 7 goals to Watford’s 2.  Both teams are coming of a win and based on the eye test I think WHU should be the better team today.  Jarrod Bowen is one reason why as he has bloomed in to the next big EPL Star with a commanding game that dominates SET pieces.  He has been in double digits for DK scoring in his last 8 games.  This covers the entire shortened EPL season as you can book when he starts he will produce with 3 of those games going over 20 Dkpts.  We can include during that run games against Chelsea, Tottenham, Wolves and Arsenal.  He is safety bottled up and ready for us to LOAD up in our CASH lineups today.  I would find it near impossible to even fade him in tournaments today.  For Fanduel (FD) he is also a LOCK for me.  His teammate Michael Antonio has been in even more impressive form lately with 6 goals in his last four games.  His shot volume has been insane also with 21 Shots (11 on goal) in that same span.  I just won’t fade him today against a team that has allowed an average of 2 goals in their last four games.  Mark Noble/Pablo Fornals are both excellent CASH plays as Noble had a heck of a game last time out.  Round out my favorite WHU CASH plays with the fullback pairing of Cresswell/Fredericks and you have a nice pool of players to consider for this home favorite.  Watford has some SET piece issues as Will Hughes seems to be the go to for SET duty but Watford just does not seem to get a ton of SET opportunities.  I would rather prioritize Ismaela Sarr as my WAT target in both DK and FD as he has the talent and attacking style of play to consider at the top of my WAT player pool.  This game probably doesn’t stay clean and Troy Deeney is the penalty kick striker for WAT who has a nose for the back of the net and if he is in the mood can be good in open play.  He is pure GPP on DK and FD for me but if the price fits play him.  I will avoid GK’s on both teams today as this game scream 3-2 or 2-1.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for Dfs soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you Dfs points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

V-12’s Prize Picks Plays

  • Michael Antonio (WHU) – The Current prop is at 6.  Antonio scoring a goal is an instant over and he has done so in 3 of his last 4 games.  He scored 4 goals last game against the lowly Norwich City Canaries but I want to point out that 6 goals in 4 games is very impressive but the shot volume is there as well.  Antonio has 21 shots over his last 4 games with 11 shots on goal.  With just shots alone Antonio can reach this 6 point prop as he is averaging “without a goal” 8 Prizepicks (PP)  points over his last 4 and his lowest output was 6 PP points.  I would lock in the over before the line moves.  If it got to 7.5 I would be more wary on smashing the over.
  • Jarrod Bowen (WHU) – This one is a little tough to call as a prop of 5 does not seem insurmountable, but Bowen is not a heavy Shot volume guy and he relies more on peripherals that are popular on Draftkings scoring like crosses.  He averages over his last 4 games 2.5 shots but only 1 shot on goal in that span.  I won’t say he is an under here but I think you could probably fade this one unless you are certain Bowen links up with Antonio on a goal which could push him over.  If this one was 3.5 i would hit the over but it could be risky at 5.
  • Ben Foster (WAT) – Goalies on PP get 5 points just for playing in a game with 1 point for a Save and -3 for a goal allowed.  This makes scoring tough to predict but lets dig in a bit.  WHU averages 4.7 shots on goal (SOG) per game and Watford averages 3.2 saves a game.  In Foster’s last 4 games he has allowed at least 1 goal every game with (8 over his last four.  In that span he has saved 15 SOG making his average PP score 2.75 over his last 4.  I just don’t see how Foster can even sniff the prop line set at 5.  Sure he could stand on his head and have a great volume save game but Watford is not great defensively and they are an away slight underdog.  I will be taking the Under on Foster and not really thinking much on it.

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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