EPL Tuesday 7/7 for all the $$MONEY$$ Breakdown plus Showdown

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ODDS

 

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on. set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

Watford vs Norwich City

**Update:  no real lineup changes here.  My favorite pay down for classic is Hernandez for NOR.  He plays wide and has a decent floor for basically min price!**

Game notes:  This two game slate will be all about how much of the favorites you can cram in your lineup (especially Chelsea).  For this particular matchup we get Watford hosting the floundering Norwich City.  Buendia is always intriguing as he is one of the best options in DFS Soccer in the EPL.  His game checks so many boxes for me but unfortunately he is always on an underdog team which clearly limits his upside.  We do not really get a discount on him and that makes it tough to decide if we want limit our exposure to other pay pieces by grabbing Buendia.  NOR is full of low ceiling CASH plays but outside of maybe a filler piece I can’t see myself going heavy on them even in a stack situation as Watford just doesn’t give up a ton of goals.  If anything I could see a Watford stack in play as they have the tendency to expose bad defensive teams and pour goals in.  This makes me like the trio of Deeney, Sarr and Hughes a lot.  The attacking group of this Watford side has never been targeted heavily in DFS but Ismaila Sarr has emerged as one of the elite wingers in the. Premier League with a deadly combination of speed and touch that has allowed him to amass 5 goals and 3 assists on the season, but more importantly he has 27 crosses in his last 5 games.  This gives him the nod for me in having a floor and still upside baked in against a NOR side that is one of the worst in the EPL in giving up crosses.  In the same light Femenia, Masina or whomever starts at fullback for WAT should also be in play.  This feels like a Troy Deeney spot to grab a goal or assist our both so consider him a top option in GPP at only $7100 on DK and close to a lock on Fanduel.

Crystal Palace vs Chelsea 

**Update:  Chelsea has Reece Brown and Az starting at fullback.  Giroud is starting over Abraham so that is very boom bust honestly.  Willian is a lock everywhere so put him in and he is my favorite captain piece or you go more gpp and play the American Hero Pulisic 🔥.  McArthur is also a decent CASH punt for CRY.  I lean 5/1 or 4/2 in Showdown builds!**

Game Notes:  I won’t go long on this one.  Chelsea is my favorite club in all of soccer so my bias can sometimes lead me astray but one thing is for certain…They are BACK!!  They have looked noticeably improved since the restart and even before the restart as the return of Kante and Willian to the starting 11 has really opened up things for this team.  I hope we get to see the “American Hero” Christian Pulisic again with the starters as he is much better playing a high attacking role with Mason Mount controlling more of the attacking midfield.  Mount and Willian have split SET pieces here and with Willian also taking penalty kick duty I expect his ownership to near 90% in all formats.  Billy Gilmour is a hell of a midfielder for Chelsea and he’s just a kid and he can play that Kante role quite well so whomever we see I like this spot for Chelsea.  Crystal Palace is the home team and without any actual fans in attendance I think they lose all advantage that may have given them here.  Luka Milovojevic is the SET piece taker for CRY with some Patrick Van Aanholt (PVA) also making cameos at times on corners or free kicks.  Wilfred Zaha is always in play as he is safe with a CASH floor built in to his game but he will have his hands full today.  I have watched quite a bit of CRY lately and I noticed when Zaha doesn’t see much of the ball he becomes very inactive.  This makes me consider him a fade in Classic and in Showdown I will have him as a possible last man in.  He has the highest upside for CRY but I worry Chelsea absolutely dominates possession.  I love playing both fullbacks in every CHE showdown because they always fit so well and both have assist equity built in based on how they love to overlap play.  So consider whomever starts (Alonso, Emerson, Azpicuelta, James) very in play in all formats.

SHOWDOWN SPECIAL

Arsenal vs Leicester City

**Update: Arsenal stays the same with no surprises.  LEI has Albrighton starting and he should get a majority of SETs.  Play him with confidence.**

Game Notes:  The late game hammer features an Arsenal side hosting Leicester City in a battle of top of the table teams vying for European tournament berths.  Arsenal and LEI both look to play in a back 3 formation with wingbacks on both sides.  I can definitely see this happening as LEI is most likely without James Maddison today and that will force their hand to run some different formations.  Tielemans or Albrighton will be on SET pieces for LEI and if they run this formation without Chillwell, Barnes or Maddison it is very hard to say what kind of a foxes side we see today.  Justin and Fuchs are great CASH game plays but the question is…. Do we “Vardy Party” or not?  Jamie Vardy came through last game with two goals and he is always someone to consider as the premier striker has plenty of tricks in his bag to find space and against a very leaky Arsenal side I can see him very in play.  However the real question is can the service be there without a lot of the normal LEI playmakers… I have my doubts here.  For Arsenal we get Buyaka Saka most likely on SET piece majority without Pepe listed in expected lineups.  Dani Ceballos or Granit Xhaka could also take a few here and there.  Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang (PEA) is the guy that dictates our builds here.  I will just say this up front that I will roster him 100%.  He takes PKs for ARS and he is always anchoring the attacking play and against a much rotated LEI side he will be a priority today.  Saka will also be a priority for me without Pepe and I can probably pass on Lacazette.  Sure he can score and he may score but this could also be a Nketiah start and both are very GPP for me.  I see builds very even here as LEI have better overall CASH plays while ARS are the GPP upside guys.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for Dfs soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you Dfs points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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