EPL Tuesday Soccer 7/21 Two Game detailed Breakdown

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ODDS

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

Watford vs Manchester City

**UPDATE:  Roberto Perrerya is starting for Watford and he is definitely someone to consider as he has skill and dribbling ability and could take some SET pieces. He is extremely underpriced on DraftKings i would prefer him over say Kyle Walker at a higher price point.  No Mahrez like I suspected so we get to play ALL the KDB today and consider Foden in a start also.  he has big upside and I love the kid’s football.  Bernardo and Sterling starting up top here and i think this is a Sterling spot and I will be considering him here in an OVER spot on PRIZEPICKS.  Cancelo at Leftback seems weird since he is naturally right footed so I am not sure i would prioritize him here as we may see Zinchenko on at the Half.**

Game notes:  We get some Man City roulette on this lovely EPL Tuesday…yaaayyyy….  You can tell by my overwhelming enthusiasm (sarcasm intended) that it is always a tough day when we have to choose how Man City will decimate a mid to low table EPL opponent.  Kevin DeBruyne is certainly going to be the chalk dejour today and as always this is rightfully so.  KDB dominates SET pieces for City and one thing I noticed when Arsenal was able to dump Man City on their heads in the FA Cup semifinal was Pep Guardiola gave Riyad Mahrez the first couple of corners and did not get KDB going as he usually does early.  Mahrez is absolutely an extraordinaire player but recent form suggests we may see some rotation and I would not be surprised to see Sterling and Foden up top with Gabriel Jesus.  Jesus comes in with some fabulous goal odds today which makes him a Fanduel semi-lock and a CASH target for DK.  Sterling and Foden I really like today also but Watford loves to limit what wide players tend to do and try to funnel the opposition to the central area of the pitch.  This screams another David Silva and KDB game to me.  I would be playing KDB CPT in CASH and getting cute with GPP.  Outside of maybe Hughes/Sarr or even Doucoure I would probably Watford as much as possible.  I do like playing a FULL Man City stack in showdowns and fading Ederson and playing a leverage one off for Watford in Troy Deeney.  He gets PK duty and is Watford can get lucky they may draw a penalty in the box and get a Deeney goal.  (Watford actually has 6 penalties they have been awarded this season.)  Keep in mind Man City are playing for positioning in the EPL table for Champions League football and nothing else really today.

Aston Villa vs Arsenal

**UPDATE:  No changes to Aston Villa lineup.  Lacazette starting for Arsenal instead of Reiss Nelson.  Everyone else remains the same.  Saka on SET pieces here.  Great spot for Arsenal Attackers.  Lacazette is also CHEAP on PRIZEPICKS!  Get the over if he is sub 5.0**

Game Notes:  Arsenal is pretty damn good away from home traditionally.  The split is very weird as Soccer you traditionally want to play at home.  Arsenal is the weird duck in the EPL pond but we have to go by the numbers.  Pierre-Emmerick Aubameyang is having a superb run of form and will be coming off two goals against Man City to secure their FA cup Finals berth.  He takes the Penalty Kicks for Arsenal and plays an attacking style of football that makes me think he will feast on the Villa defense.  Villa has allowed 66 goals this season which is second worst to only Norwich City at 70 allowed.  Play him with confidence on both sites.  Bukayo Saka should be the primary SET piece taker here if we do not see Pepe or Ozil in the starting 11.  Saka has a very nice game which is accompanied with a great CASH floor.  He will be a CASH game target who is highly owned today.  Cedric Soares has made his way around Europe and he brings an attacking wingback style of play to whichever team he suits up for.  He is not a defensive minded player and loves to get forward in play.  He is always good for 3-4 crosses per game and Aston Villa give up crosses and peripherals in bunches.  Target the guys for Arsenal that accumulate shots and crosses today. Reiss Nelson is a superb young player with a bright future.  Nelson can also take SET pieces so if we see him here in a spot start he will be very much in play for any Arsenal stacks.  Edward Nketiah is more GPP and is basically a goal or bust.  Jack Grealish I have wrote up a bunch and I will be a record player here on him.  He is at the end of his stay at Aston Villa and is off to bigger and better things heading towards a spell with a BIG time EPL club.  He is CASH friendly and attacks with a high work rate.  His style of play oozes upside and I will note Arsenal lead the league in penalties committed resulting in penalty kicks attempts which Grealish will be on duty for.  Hourihane/McGinn/El-Mohamedy/Targett are all in my “Please Consider” player pool today.  There is probably going to be 15-20 lineups I will love for CASH as this one should have some fireworks.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for DFS soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you DFS points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

 

PrizePicks Soccer Bet of the Day

  • Kevin DeBruyne – OVER 6.0 ( I would be comfortable playing the OVER all the way to 6.5)  Watford have conceded 7 penalty goals this season and they should get dominated by City today possession wise.  City average 7.8 corners a game and each is a chance for KDB to get an assist along with the amount of direct free kicks he takes which can be a shot on goal for each and that is 2 PP pts per.
  • Pierre-Emmerick Aubameyang – OVER 7.5 (I would be good taking him at OVER 8 also)  I learned my lesson not playing OVER’s on Arsenal when they are playing away from home.  PEA has to score probably here to get over value but Aston Villa is one of the worst EPL defenses I have seen, they have allowed 66 goals (second worse in EPL behind Norwich City) and have given up 6 penalties this year (PEA takes all PKs for Arsenal).
  • Consider the OVER on Jack Grealish at 3.0.  See game notes above.
  • Flex play or go big and Powerplay this one.  Confidence Level (8/10)

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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