EPL Wednesday Soccer 7/22 TWO game breakdown + Serie A Bonus Content

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ODDS

EPL

Serie A

 

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

Manchester United vs West Ham

 

Game notes: This one is all about Bruno Fernandes and company getting the job done at Old Trafford versus a West Ham side that wants to fight off relegation.  Mathematically West Ham should be safe but they won’t want to leave their fate in other teams hands.  Man U are tied with Leicester City in the EPL table but will be wanting to crush here as they need to not only jump LEI in the table but have their goal differential be the tie breaker in case it is needed.  I really do like the spots for ALL the Man U attackers (Rashford/Martial/Greenwood) as they are in a prime spot but West Ham won’t just give goals away.  Aaron Wan-Bissaka and Brandon Williams will provide a nice CASH salary relief to your lineups if needed.  Jarrod Bowen is a superb player and he is priced up as one.  He has performed admirably against tough competition all year and lately the form of Bowen and Michael Antonio has been splendid.  Antonio has been on a goal scoring tear of late but this matchup may be much tougher than what they have come up against so far.  I do like the lower salary of the Mark Noble/Pablo Fornals/Cresswell’s of the world as they may be needed to get more of the Man U attack.  Paul Pogba will go under owned as he always does but if Man U press the attack like I think they will expect him to nab an assist today as his passing is remarkable.

 

Liverpool vs Chelsea

**Update:  Both lineups look as expected.  For Fanduel I recommend the MVP spot to be Willian, Giroud or Salah.  I would not mind one but Jorginho or Fabinho on FD as fillers.  Azpicuelta is my favorite CASH defender for FD or you can definitely grab VVD (Virgil)*

Game Notes:  This one on paper appears to be a battle of the heavyweights.  Liverpool do not have anything to play for as they have claimed the EPL crown in splendid fashion.  I do expect them to give some of their youth a chance to start here so there is always the chance for rotation. Trent Alexander-Arnold is one of the best SET piece takers in the world as his control of crosses is like a true magician.  He plays in a position that allows him to accrue stats and he should be very popular in CASH games.  Mo Salah is also a favorite folks to flock to when Liverpool is on the slate as he takes all their PK’s and also can grab free kicks or a corner or two.  Mane is another great option here for LIV along with one of my favorite CASH plays Andrew Robertson.  I will be honest though because of the stakes here I will be more on the Chelsea side of this game.  Willian is going to be the main target for CHE today along with Pulisic/Mount depending on who starts.  Oliver Giroud is more GPP for me but has the strength to be able to try and break that Liverpool back line.  Virgil is a world class defender so Giroud has his work cut out for him. I think Mount lacks what is needed to really press the Liverpool defense and I think the PrizePicks line on him reflects his inability to accrue shots on goal and relies on assist or longer shots on goal to get value.  Liverpool will not give these away easily.  Christian Pulisic “The American Hero” will be more favored by me today as his upside is just much higher than Mount.  I would almost say the wingbacks(fullbacks) for CHE can be a CASH game staple as Alonso has been amazing the last two weeks.  His CASH game floor is worth rostering him ion both GPP and CASH formats.  My full fades for this game will be Firminho and Mount.  I will focus on the SET takers and the Fullbacks/Wingbacks.

 

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for DFS soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you DFS points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

Serie A Expected Lineups

The SET Takers and TOP Plays are noted here and for Lineup analysis and confirmations on starter notes please join our Premium Discord @solutionsteam

SPAL vs Roma

Lecce vs Brescia

Inter Milan vs Fiorentina

Torino vs Hellas Verona

Sampdoria vs Genoa

TOP PLAYS

  • Edin Dzeko
  • Roma Stack (Dzeko, Mkhitaryan, Kluivert, Pellegrini, Perrotti)
  • Candreva/Eriksen/Biraghi – Inter SET takers
  • Erick Pulgar (More GPP as he is an away dog)
  • Sandro Tonali (VALUE)
  • Veretout (Favorite ROMA value piece)
  • Criscito, Peres, Italian wingbacks are immense value as they play forward). You can identify a wingback if they are playing outside on the far left or right of a formation and the team’s defense has a back 3.

 

 

PrizePicks Soccer Bet of the Day

  • Edin Dzeko – OVER 6.0 ( I think this line is tight but I would still take Dzeko OVER at 6.5)  Roma are big favorites today and Dzeko is in a prime spot to score as SPAL just give up a TON of shots to opposition and sit in dead last in Serie A.  This one screams Dzeko goal. (7/10)
  • Roberto Firminho – UNDER 3.5 (I would be good taking him at UNDER 3.0 but if he got to 2.5 I would fade).  We use recent form a ton in Soccer analysis and Bobby has been out of form since April.  He does not have a high Shot volume profile and plays a False 9 striker position which means he falls back in attack and attempts to play in Salah and Mane.  Chelsea are playing fabulous lately and this is not a game Liverpool need to win and will most likely be playing for a 1-0 type of win.  I cannot see them being better than Chelsea in a no stakes game and with Chelsea having so much to play for. (8/10)
  • Consider the OVER on Mason Mount at 2.5.  See game notes above.
  • Flex play this one.  Confidence Level (7/10)

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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