EPL Wednesday Soccer 7/8 + (EPL) SHOWDOWN Bonus!!

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ODDS

 

What to expect from this article:  I will be breaking down a preferred player pool by position and having notes about specific matchups.  Once we see some games played we can possibly provide an expected lineup and formations.  Lineups usually release about 30-90 minutes before a game, so my best advice is jump into our Discord Chat and our Team can advise you of lineup plays and questions can be asked. Good Luck!

DFS Soccer Run-down:  

We will be targeting two different type of lineup builds between DK and FD.

On Draftkings you are awarded for crosses and will want players that accumulate stats by playing wide, attacking or on set pieces.  When a player is on “Sets” this simply means he is favored to be the player on the ball for corner kicks and free kicks.  Each corner kick usually results in a cross and you will see guys accrue a goals worth of fantasy points by crosses alone.  Shots on goal are also a juicy stat but much harder to predict.  So generally if you hear a guy is on “Sets” then he will be a target for DK and even more so if he is on a betting favorite.  DFS Soccer has a lot to do with possession of the ball.  The more a team has the ball, then ideally the more. stats they can accrue.  

Fanduel works a bit differently as Goals and tackles are much more of a desired stat and Goal scorers and Centre backs (CBs) come in to play.  You can still accrue stats but picking out the goal scorers becomes much more important.  Also having a winning goalkeeper is much more important because of their scoring system.

Diagram Key:  RED CIRCLES (Set takers/Preferred CASH plays), GREEN CIRCLES (CASH plays), YELLOW SQUARE (GPP plays)…If a Player is underlined in Red it means he has taken SET pieces before and could steal a few.

**Be Sure to check back 30-60 minutes before lock for updates**

Expected Lineups

 

Sheffield United vs Wolverhampton

**Update:  No changes for SHU here.  Osborn at 3k is a decent punt for CASH games.  If Norwood gets subbed early he could take SET pieces.  Traore in for WOL makes me really like him as a pivot from Man City chalk today.  But remember the CITY game is the one to target.  Moutinho is probably a stone cold LOCK for CASH today.  The price is too cheap.**

Game notes:  Without expected lineups it is hard to really grasp how we will approach any game.  SHU should have their hands full with another similar formation squad in the Wolves here.  Whether or not John Fleck will be available will be huge for SHU.  Oliver Norwood is the go to SET piece man right now and if SHU want any chance at a Europa league qualifying spot they have ground to make up 7 points back from Man U.  Wolves are much closer to Man U for the Top 5 at only 3 points out so both of these teams will be vying for 3 points in this matchup. Joao Moutinho is the SET piece majority taker for Wolves and you can expect CASH plays from their wingback starters (Jonny, Doherty, Vinagre) and Adama Traore out on the wing.  Diego Jota and Raul Jimenez are more GPP against a solid defense in Sheffield United.  I love the SHU wingbacks just as much as Baldock and Enda Stevens are as solid as they come.  DO not be fooled by Sander Berge as he is an immensely talented youthful defensive midfielder but the recent game logs are more an anomaly than anything else.  Oliver McBurnie, Billy Sharp and McGoldrick are all GPP for SHU here as the striking pair and whoever starts I will not be all over so I feel there is GPP leverage here as my takes usually cover the ownership.

Manchester City vs Newcastle

**Update:  Gab Jesus starts and I think he is going to be very very Popular in the F spot on Classic.   Foden is starting up top and I think in GPP he is my favorite City pivot piece but it will be tough to fade KDB anywhere.  As a  matter of fact just play KDB in CASH and don’t look back.  Cancelo and Zinchenko are the fullback pairing and they are great plays as well since Newcastle allows a ton of crosses.  NEW has the expected lineup with Ritchie taking SET pieces and maybe some Shelvey Sets also but they are a fade for me unless you wanna get cute and play for save upside with Dubravka as he has the most save potential on the slate.**

Game Notes:  I know you probably saw the cover photo of this article and were like “Who is that Soaring Eagle of a Midfielder in the Manchester City kit?”  Well my friends welcome to the Phil Foden fan club.  Yes we love alllllllllllll the City tomorrow especially in classic and most builds in CASH will be dependent on how many you can cram in and if we have KDB chalk which is usually the case.  The next potential spot we go as we build is the trio of Gab Jesus, and whomever starts up top with him (Sterling, Mahrez, B. Silva, Sane, etc.). I ask you to just consider my dude Phil as he is one of the most electrifying young stars in the EPL.  We may not see a start from him but if I know Pep (and I do not personally) but if I did I bet he would be reading this very article thinking why not give the young man another start against a very beatable Newcastle side.  Man City need to win; and not as much for the EPL crown because that is long gone to Liverpool.  More so for their own psyche and to position them to make a Champions League and EFL cup run.  Foden carvers up defensive midfields and while the top 3 do the work to create spacing it gives Foden a chance to play his naturally suited Attacking Midfielder role.  Do not get Silly and try to fade Kevin DeBruyne here as that is ludicrous but I am just saying you want to be different than the field and I think Foden does that.  Both fullbacks as per the usual are in play depending on whom starts (Mendy, Walker, Cancelo, Zinchenko) and I wouldn’t hate playing Ederson here except he is so expensive it is hard to pay up where I would want to for more upside.  NEW has Jonjo Shelvey at their disposal for SET pieces or maybe we see Matt Ritchie back to resume that role.  St. Maxim and Almiron are normally solid plays but I really think I am full fading NEW outside of maybe considering Dubravka as a volume punt GK.

West Ham vs Burnley

**Update:  Yarmalenko is starting for WHU which is a nice value piece if you need it but outside of the fullbacks I think this game is a filler only.  Westwood is on SETs for Burnley and Burnley doesn’t allow a ton  of goals.  WHU is exploitable on defense so Jay Rodriguez and Vydra are in play for GPP value.  Bowen is the overpriced guy today but he can pay off value since he clearly gets his points game after game.  My favorite value piece from this one is Pieters at 4k on DK.**

Game Notes:  This one is going to decide the slate for classic.  I will tell you why… I know we will be faced with having to play some mid to cheap level guys outside of our Man City pieces and this is the game to target.  SHU and WOL will be too defensive and slow for me so we want to target some pieces from this game.  We should see Cresswell or Fornals and maybe even Lanzini on some SET pieces here for WHU but I really hope we get some Jarrod Bowen again as he looks to have taken over this role and his game is awesome to watch.   He is attack minded and does not play around when it comes to crossing the ball in to the box.  He is priced up to $9500 on DK which is unreal LOL but man he has been on point.  He has finished over 20 dkpts in his last two games and over 10 in his last 6 where he started and was not used as a substitute.  This dude is the real deal and may be a pay worth paying for.  Dwight McNeil at $9100 is also not discounted for us on a short slate and he has a DFS profile we love to target.  High floor accumulator with upside in the goal scoring department.  I would say without a firm role on SET pieces it is tough to go there honestly.  If Mark Noble starts at $4400 he is viable as he has a Penalty Kick role.  I like all the fullbacks from both sides of this game as well.  Do not fall in to the Tomas Soucek trap as he may have some penalty kick duty over Noble if he is in but he is a holding midfielder for the most part and is GPP only.  Instead look to Ashley Westwood as he has the SET piece majority for Burnley and he is super cheap.

Goalkeeper

  1. I do not Tout GKs for Dfs soccer because anything can happen.  Here is my thoughts though for this position.  
  2. Try to not play a GK against your attacking players.  Unless it is a small slate (3 games or less).
  3. I usually don’t like to pay up for GK unless I think the bottom of the pool Keepers could legitimately go negative.  
  4. GKs can be scored on and still be great plays.  Saving a shot on goal and giving up a goal can net a zero.  Clean sheet bonuses and wins both give you Dfs points but it is much easier to predict shot volume against than predicting clean sheets.  I have seen -15000 favorites give up a goal in soccer so nothing is for certain.  If you pay at GK for a huge favorite you may not have your GK see any shots at all which severely hampers your upside.
  5. I usually target the Cheapest GK (normally playing at home) that isn’t against the huge favorites.  

SHOWDOWN EPL BONUS

Brighton vs Liverpool

**Update: Liverpool is rotating as expected so we got Neco Williams starting for Robertson which is a downgrade.  He is still a fine CASH play and we also got Firmino back at the False 9 so that is intriguing.  Firmino is prob still GPP but I like him a lot today.  Rounding out Liverpool the biggest bump goes to Oxlade-Chamberlain as he starts top 3 in the spot vacant by Mane.  He is a good CASH play with goal/assist upside.  No other big surprises for LIV.  Pascal Gross makes an appearance back in the starting 11 for BHA and he should dominate  SET pieces here.  BHA are still an underdog and possession should be tough for them.  Troussard is a good high upside play here that will trouble LIV defenders and Lamptey has speed to burn and should give Neco trouble down the right side.  I still feel Pool will dominate here but to get weird maybe play a Liverpool stack without Allison and a high upside BHA piece since Salah should be 100% owned today without Mane in and you will have the salary.**

Game Notes: This one is straightforward.  You will want ALL the Liverpool here.  Their showdowns are always a little tough for GPP but for CASH it is very simple.  You captain Trent Alexander-Arnold and build from there.  In GPP you can be a bit different by changing up your lineup and altering your CPT pick.  Mo Salah has the most upside as he is an All-World attacker with PK duty and has so much creativity to his game.  He and TAA have double digit floors because if how they accumulate.  Andrew Robertson is also another must have for CASH games as he has a good floor and is always underpriced.  I will say one thing that stood out is there betting line seemed very un-Liverpool like as they were barely a -110 favorite and a lot of that has to do with already clinching the EPL crown and the possibility of rotation.  I would not doubt on a mid-week game us seeing some Liverpool regulars start on the bench.  For BHA Aaron Mooy should be on SETs for them but we have seen Alexis McAllister also take when Mooy was on the bench.

Do not forget to get in our Discord Chat.  The Author of this article may not play all the plays listed, as these plays could change based of confirmed lineups.  This article is meant to help with the lineup production process.  Good Luck!

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