Welcome back! Last weeks episode featured arguably the greatest tribal move of all time. Seeing the only 2 time champ in history, Sandra get sent home by under dog Denise. We also saw another power house player in Parvati get sent home. Hopefully you guys watched and enjoyed and are ready for another day of action. Before we dig in, I am once again going to share some insight in to this season as well as some strategy for tonight’s slate. Before we dig in, let’s take a very basic look at what this “Castaways” slate is.
In an effort to keep people coming back to Fanduel, they are once again offering a free slate for tonight’s episode of Survivor, “Winners At War” episode 7. If you have never watched Survivor before, then this will all seem foreign to you. To help with that, I am going to keep things pretty simple. Main thing you need to know about tonight’s slate is that there are 3 teams, Blue/Red/Green and a member from 1 of those teams will be voted out tonight. 2 team’s will win “immunity” in a physical and strategic game which will take place early on in the episode. The losing team will have to vote out a member of their own team. Let’s take a look at a team by team breakdown as well as what advantages players have. The teams have names but again, we will keep it simple and go with their teams colors.
Note: Fun thing about this season is everyone playing is a former winner. With one winner winning literally 20 years ago! So everyone playing is really good at this game, making for, IMO, one of the best seasons to date.
Tribal Council- This is where players are voted out. The losing team, or teams, are sent to tribal council where one player is voted out.
Idol- An idol can be played at tribal council and will make the person immune from being voted out. All votes against that person (or the person the idol is played for) will no longer count. Most powerful tool in the game.
Fire Token- This is a new twist to the game and I personally love it. Tokens are essentially currency and can be used to “buy” certain advantages or luxuries in the game. It is a bit early on, but tokens are going to play a massive part of this season. The more a player has, the better for them.
Extinction Island- In this years season, when a player is voted out, they do not go home. Instead they go to “The Edge of Extinction” where they are given chances to earn Fire Tokens which will help them potentially win there way back in to the game. We have also seen multiple examples of someone here being able to “sell” a reward to a player currently in the game in return for a Fire Token.
Team Blue lost last weeks challenge and the advantage of having the numbers came through as Parvati, who was on the wrong side of the numbers at the team swap, was sent home.
Michelle- Michelle is in a tough spot here as she is on the wrong side of the numbers. She does have 4 fire tokens, giving her some hope. Her best hope will be in finding an idol and/or flipping one of the 3 men on her team (potentially using a fire token as bribery). Neither will be an easy task, making Michelle a risky play.
Nick/Yul- Both guys are on the right side of the numbers and both have 2 fire tokens. Both guys are in a great spot to make it through to the next round but would need to win the challenge. Middle of the pack plays.
Wendell– Wendell feels like the riskiest of the 3 with the numbers in this tribe. He has bad history with Michelle and his actions at the last tribal council could cause some friction with Nick & Yul. He also only has 1 fire token and no advantages. Wendell is a risky play.
Much like last week, Blue doesn’t present much flash in terms of upside. On paper Michelle is the easy vote if they lose with Wendell being the next most likely to go if Michelle were to pull something off. I would only play Blue if you think they win the challenge.
Wow Denise, what a boss move! I mentioned the potential for fireworks last week if these guys go to tribal and we were not disappointed! With Sandra gone, the tribe is an even split of 2-2 with Jeremy & Denise on one side and Kim & Tony on the other side.
Jeremy- Jeremy once again holds a unique advantage in his pocket. He has the power to essentially skip tribal council if his team loses and he choses to do so. This puts him in a solid position but from a DFS perspective, using an advantage does not score as many points as a hidden immunity idol. Jeremy has 1 fire token and is a relatively safe play.
Denise- Denise went from an under the radar under dog to a power house with one tribal council. Unfortunately for her, she no longer has an idol. But she should have Jeremy’s loyalty moving forward. Denise has 1 fire token. I think she survives tonight, but her lack of advantages & fire tokens makes her dependent on the team win.
Tony- The preview for this weeks episode didn’t show much. But it did show Jeremy talking about getting rid of Tony. Does this mean he is gone? Of course not. But it is the type of talk that is scary. Tony has 1 fire token and I once again am not interested in him here.
Kim- Kim is one of only 2 players with an idol. She also has 1 fire token. Kim is in a strong spot as she has an idol in her pocket if she has to go to tribal and she feels she is in trouble. Kim is a viable play.
Once again Red makes for an interesting tribe. Jeremy has an advantage and Kim holds an idol. Jeremy and Kim are the safest plays here due to those advantages. Next would be Denise for me and last would be Tony. If you think Red wins immunity, you can play all 4, but I would be very weary of Tony tonight.
Last weeks immunity winners and once again one of the more intriguing teams DFS wise. We didn’t see a ton from them last week, but we did see Adam getting worried that he may be the odd man out with Sarah and Sophie allied and Ben seeming to distance himself from Adam.
Sarah- Sarah has one of the best advantages in the game in the “steal a vote” advantage. If played, she can literally cancel out a players vote and cast a 2nd one herself. Allowing her to swap the numbers. Sarah has 0 fire tokens. Overall Sarah should be safe here if she plays things right, making her a viable play.
Sophie– Sophie and Sarah have formed an alliance and are in a solid spot. As mentioned above, Sarah has an advantage. Add to that the fact that Sophie has an Idol and these 2 are holding the cards. She also holds 1 Fire token. Like Sarah, Sophie should be a safe play here assuming she doesn’t completely botch things.
Ben- As mentioned above, Ben seems to be forming a strong relationship with the girls. He only has 1 fire token and no advantages. But his relationship seems to make him the potential swing vote here, putting him in a decent spot. Ben is a middle of the pack play.
Adam- Adam feels like the riskiest play here. He has made a few mistakes this season with overly aggressive play and he admitted to feeling like Ben was beginning to distance himself. Adam has 1 fire token and is the riskiest play on green.
The girls really find themselves in the power spot here. They make for the best plays here with Ben next and Adam last. Once again, if you feel like they win immunity, then a full stack is in order.
You will notice on Fanduel that the bottom of the players list features a few players with black flags. These players have been voted out and are on Extinction Island. I have 0 interest in any of them with the exception of Natalie.
Natalie– Natalie was the first player to go home and has dominated the challenges on the Island, earning herself 4 Fire Tokens. If this is the week they run a challenge allowing a player from the Island to return from the game, Natalie is in the best position to purchase an advantage and potentially win her way back in to the game. She makes for a very risky play as we have absolutely no way of knowing if this is the week they run a challenge to allow a member of extinction island to return.
Now that we have a sample size to draw from, strategy is much clearer. The winners of last weeks contest had a full stack of green, who won immunity, paired with Denise. The Denise play made sense due to her having an idol and a full team stack makes sense if you can correctly guess who wins the immunity challenge. This strategy makes sense while we have teams. Another strategy (the one I went with) is a 3-2 format where you pick 3 players from the same team who you feel are safe from elimination and 2 players from a 2nd team who have advantages and/or should also be safe. An example of that tonight would be Sarah & Sophie paired with a trio from one of the other 2 teams.
There are other random scoring opurtunities like: Bequeathed a Fire Token, Cries on cameral, catches a fish, finds an idol, etc. But I think you are better off concentrating on the things above then worrying about little things that are random and nearly impossible to predict (not every player gets camera time each week, not every week do they show fish being caught, fire token all depends on who gets sent home, etc.).