We are back for day 3 of the years first slam. The first 2 days brought us massive, 64 match slates. Today brings us half half that with a 32 match slate. That is still a ton to look at, which is why we have our cheat sheet! Our cheat sheet has all the info you need in one spot. To help you even further, let's take a look at a few top plays to prioritize. Before we dig in, here are a few notes on Tennis DFS.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden's in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn't outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Now that you have a better feel for Tennis DFS, let's dig in.
Elena Rybakina- I can't figure out what the sites have against Rybakina, but we will take it. Some how Rybakina is only $18 today despite being a -305 favorite and in exceptional form to start the year. Over the last 12 months on hard court, main draw matches, Minnen is 4-5 (44%) while Rybakina is 17-5 (77%).
Note: Like yesterday, almost all of today's big Ace plays find themselves favorites. Ace plays provide a solid floor and are worth considering if you find yourself with the funds to grab them (don't over punt just to get ace players!).
Note: Fanduel pricing is once again a bit softer today. Opening up the door for a few different builds. I would suggest one of the following strategies. 1. Build an all favorites lineup. You can do that today as there are a handful of favorites in the $16-18 range. 2. Take a cheap under dog that opens up salary. Keep in mind that whatever route you go, you need all of your players to win if you expect to win big. In cash you can typically get away with a loss or 2, but still the goal is all wins.
With the above note in mind, we are going to take a look at a cheaper, slight favorite who is worth considering as well as a punt option worth considering.
Jannik Sinner- Sinner is an up and comer in the tennis world, at only 18 years old. Sinner man handled Purcell in the 1st round 3-0, while his serve is not dominate, he makes you beat him. If he can reduce his unforced errors, then he should be able to get past the 27 year old Hungarian, Fucsovics.
Marc Polmans- Polmans opens up at +270 today vs Lajovic. Lajovic was able to get past Edmund in 3 sets, but was down the 1st set 0-5 and came back after the rain delay. Polmans took our Kukushkin (#68 in ATP rankings) in 5 sets yesterday. Polmans is a big serve guy and will need to lean on that today to advance. Marc is 2-2 on hard courts at the ATP level over the last year, while Lajovic is 6-11 (35%). Lajovic is definitely the more talented player here, but if Polmans has his serve going, I can see the upset.
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck!