The Home Run Derby will list 2-3 players that are in prime power hitting spots. To get the full upside of each players performance, they should be included in a team stack as well as possible one offs.
Miguel Sano– Sano and the Twins are in Seattle taking on Erik Swanson and the Mariners. Swanson comes in with a 4.77 xFIP, a huge 58% medium contact and very low ground ball rate. Swanson relies heavily on a 92 mph fastball, throwing it a whopping 65% to both sides of the plate.
Sano is fresh off the IL where he hit .316 with 2 homers across 10 games. What I like about Sano tonight is his history against 92-94 mph fastballs. He carries a monster .508 wOBA and .419 ISO against that pitch, a pitch Swanson throws a ton. Look for Sano to carry very low ownership and offer potential gpp winning value if he homers. (Be sure be starts, there is a log jam at DH)
JOEY GALLO– Like yesterday at Yankee Stadium, balls will be poppin in the midwest. 85 degrees in Kansas City with the wind blowing out at 16 mph and Homer Bailey on the mound = another home run recipe. Shin Willie Calhoun, Hunter Dozier, Adalberto Mondesi, Ryan O’Hearn, Alex Gordon. Take your pick. Our choice to go yard is “Pico De Gallo”- Joey Gallo.
Against left handed bats, Bailey mainly throws a 93 mph fastball. Against a fastball and the the other type of pitches that Bailey throws, Gallo has AT LEAST a .421 wOBA, .621 CXwOBA, .396 ISO, 51% hard contact and 331 average distance. Elite numbers from an elite long ball hitter.
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