The Home Run Derby will list 2-3 players that are in prime power hitting spots. To get the full upside of each players performance, they should be included in a team stack as well as possible one offs.
Matt Carpenter– Carp and the Cardinals are visiting the Rangers, something they haven’t done since the 2011 World Series. The Rangers are starting Jose Leclerc tonight but he is just the opener. Adrian Sampson is expected to take the bulk of the innings as the long reliever. Both matchups are nice for Carpenter, but we are going to concentrate on Sampson.
Sampson has a 5.49 xFIP (yikes!) and gives up a crazy 45% hard contact and 40% medium contact. Add in the fact that he is pitching at home, in one of the premier hitters parks, on a warm 80 degree day and it spells trouble. Sampson relies on a sinker to lefties, throwing it 55% of the time. Carpenter has feasted on sinkers in his career, sporting a .432 wOBA and .293 ISO to go with a 55% hard contact rate and 90% contact rate.
To add to the many things already in Carpenters favor, this is also a homecoming game for him as he was born and raised in Texas. And lastly, the Rangers own the 2nd worst bull pen era with a 5.29.
Joc Pederson- Joc finds himself in a dream matchup tonight. Taking on Anthony DeSclafani and the Reds in Cincinnati, another premier hitters park. DeSclafani is solid against righties but gets destroyed by lefties with a .384 wOBA and .276 ISO against.
One of the worst matchups a pitcher who struggles against lefties can have is Joc Pederson. Joc has the second highest ISO on the slate, only trailing Nolan Arenado (another great home run potential play, though at a much higher price tag). Joc is sporting a whopping .396 wOBA and .374 ISO against righties over the past 365 days.
DeSclafani throws a 93 mph fastball 45% of the time to righties with a slider 26% and sinker 14%. Joc hits all 3 pitches well with a .300+ ISO against all 3. Look for Joc and the dodgers lefties to send a few out tonight!
Good luck tonight. Let’s get some dingers!
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