Home Run Derby 5/18

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The Home Run Derby will list 2-3 players that are in prime power hitting spots. To get the full upside of each players performance, they should be included in a team stack as well as possible one offs.

Joey Gallo– Gallo and the Rangers are at home taking on Dakota Hudson and the Cardinals. Hudson has really struggled with lefties in his career, giving up a massive .444 wOBA and .248 ISO to lefties over the past 365 days. 

Gallo comes in crushing righties to the tune of .385 wOBA and .319 ISO! On top of that, Hudson throws a sinker to lefties 45% of the time, a pitch that Gallo crushes with a .470 wOBA, .421 ISO, 52% contact rate and an average distance of 357.97 feet. Only thing that could hold Gallo back from homering today is the weather. Be sure to keep an eye on it today! (Rangers lefties profile great here and make a great stack with Gallo)

Joc Pederson– We find ourselves going right back to Joc today. Joc is in another stellar spot in a hitters stadium against a righty that struggles against lefties. Tyler Mahle gives up a .415 wOBA and .274 ISO to righties. Just like with DeSclafani yesterday, the Dodgers are as tough a matchup as it gets if you struggle with lefties as they have 3 guys with right around .400 wOBA and .300 ISO against righties! (Muncy/Joc/Bellinger)

Mahle throws a 92 mph fastball to lefties at a crazy high 68% of the time. Joc crushes 92-94 mph fastballs to the tun of .415  wOBA and .382 ISO. Look for Joc and his fellow power lefties to have another big day. (Just like with the Rangers, Dodgers lefties profile really well here and make a great stack with Joc)

Dwight Smith Jr.– Smith Jr. should come in at extremely low ownership and is the type of play that potentially wins you a gpp. Smith has a quiet .364 wOBA and .235 ISO against righties. While his opponent, Adam Plutko, has an dreadful .424 wOBA and .348 ISO against lefties. 

Plutko relies heavily on a 90 mph fastball to lefties. A pitch with Smith Jr. has crushed early on in his career, albeit in a small sample size. He has a .826 wOBA and .727 ISO against 90-92 mph fastballs! Not a number he will sustain, but his 92% contact rate suggests he see’s slower pitches like that extremely well and Plutkos struggles with lefties should lead to a big day from Smith Jr.

 

 

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