Home Run Derby 5/22

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The Home Run Derby will list 2-3 players that are in prime power hitting spots. To get the full upside of each players performance, they should be included in a team stack as well as possible one offs.

Matt Olson– Olson and the A’s are in Cleveland taking on Jefry Rodriguez at 1:10 this afternoon. Jefry Rodriguez has held his own this season after being called upon as a starter due to multiple injuries to the Indians rotation. While Rodriguez has pitched to a respectable 3.45 ERA thus far, his advanced stats suggest regression.

What has us on Olson is Rodriguez’s struggles with left handed bats. Rodriguez is giving up a massive .380 wOBA and .261 ISO to lefties! Olson on the other hand has an elite .349 wOBA and .249 ISO against righties. It is no surprise that in 3 at bats against Rodriguez, Olson has a walk and a homer. 

For as bad as Rodriguez is against lefties, he is actually very respectable against righties with a .277 wOBA and .126 ISO. I would play Olson as a one off, or pair him with any lefties/switch hitters that start for Oakland.

Javier Baez- Baez was held out of the starting lineup the last 2 games with a bruised heel. He was able to pinch hit last night and promptly hit the game winning rbi single. This points to him being back in the lineup tonight. Assuming he starts, he will be taking on a rookie lefty in Cole Irvin.

Irvin has been solid in his first 2 career starts, carrying a 2.77 ERA thus far. However his advance stats suggest he has gotten a bit lucky with a 4.73 xFIP and .214 BABIP. 

What stands out with Baez is more so his skills than Irvins skills. Baez has a MONSTER .489 wOBA and .370 ISO against lefties! That is the highest wOBA on the slate (higher than Christian Yelich and Mike Trout) and 2nd highest ISO. Simply put, Baez destroys lefties. 

Add in the fact that the Cubs are at home with a 12 mph wind blowing out, and Baez has a great chance to send one deep here. If you want to stack the Cubs here, Kris Bryant, David Bote and Willson Contreras are your best options here and Albert Almora as a cheap piece. 

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