Home Run Derby 5/24

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Nolan Arenado– Pretty obvious and chalk play here, but the numbers suggest it deserves to be chalk. Arenado is at home facing lefty John Means. Means isn’t that bad, but Coors field is a different animal. The weather can have drastic impacts on baseball and no stadium is that more true than Coors

Arenado hits lefties to the tune of .480 wOBA and .419 ISO. Those aren’t just good, those are as good as it gets. Means gives up a .321 wOBA and .197 ISO. Means numbers aren’t awful, but bad enough to attack. 

Means relies on a 91 mph fastball to lefites throwing it 55% of the time and a slider 35% of the time. Arenado profiles extremely well against both pitches with a .590 wOBA and .457 ISO against 90-92 mph fastballs and a .419 wOBA and .338 ISO against the slider. Coors field is a top 3 scoring stadium every single year. Don’t worry about ownership and stack em up here. 

Pete Alonso- For those that listen to our podcast, you know how much I love Pete Alonso. The kid is a legit superstar and he is showing that in his rookie year. Man crush aside, lets talk some numbers. 

Alonso has a ridiculous .456 wOBA and .488 ISO so far in his young career. Numbers that will decline over time, but show you just how good this kid has been. Whats more is he is going against Gregory Soto of the Tigers today. Soto has a 5.56 xFIP and is giving up a ton of hard contact. 

Soto relies heavily on a sinker to righties, throwing it 60%. Alonso LOVES sinkers so far in his career. Granted an extremely small sample size, but check out these numbers for Alonso against the sinker. .956 wOBA, 1.5 ISO, 80% hard contact and a just silly average distance of 400 feet! I mean come on. 

While all of these ridiculous numbers by Alonso will eventually level off to a certain extent. This is not the type of matchup that scares me even a little bit. Alonso and the Mets should have a field day against a young pitcher here. Stack em up around Alonso and take advantage of the Mets value. 

Christian Yelich– On a huge slate with Coors, a guy like Yelich could be the forgotten man. He and the Brewers are at home taking on Jared Eickhoff of the Phillies. 15 of Yelich’s 19 homers have come at home this year. 

Eickhoff throws an 89 mph fastball to lefties almost exactly half the time. He might want to consider not throwing any to Yelich today as Yelich crushes 88-90 mph fastballs. In a bit smaller of a sample size, Yelich has a monster .783 wOBA, .938 ISO, 67% hard contact rate and an average distance of 370 feet. If Eickhoff throws Yelich a fastball anywhere near the zone, that bad boy is gone. Stack up the Brewer lefties here.

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