Home Run Derby 5/26

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Trevor Story– Lets get the obvious and chalk plays out of the way here. The Rockies are at home facing David Hess. David Hess is a guy we have picked on a few times in here and will continue to do so. He has a 5.57 xFIP (yikes), and over a .346 wOBA and .243 ISO to both sides of the plates. He is one of the worst starters in baseball and is followed by the worst bull pen in baseball.

Hess relies on a 92 mph fastball to both lefties and righties, throwing it over 55%. Every starer but Ian Desmond and Brendan Rodgers (1 at bat sample for Rodgers) have an ISO over .200 against 92-94 mph fastballs. With Story leading the way with a .466 wOBA, .415 ISO, 51% hard contact rate and an average distance of 345 feet. 

Luckily the Rockies aren’t on Fanduel main, but they are on Draftkings. Stack the Rockies muliple ways if you are playing multiple gpps. Literally every Rockie is in play today with Trevor Story leading the way. 

Max Kepler– Boy oh boy, how about these Twins?! They lead the league with a .686 win percentage, crazy! A big part of that is Max Kepler. Kepler has always been super talented but struggles with consistency. He has been a streak player throughout his young career and he is streaking the right way at the moment. With multi hit games in his last 4 games, including 3 hits in each of the last two games and a homer each in both games, Max is on fire!

Kepler will look to keep things going against Dylan Covey and the White Sox. Covey doesn’t give up as bad of numbers as you think, with a high ground ball rate and low hard hit rate. But where he struggles is control with a dreadful 1.6 WHIP. He also struggles against lefties much more than righties with a .349 wOBA and .164 ISO against lefties, both about 60 points higher than his numbers against righties.

Look for the Twins lefties, led by Kepler, to take advantage of Covey here. If he is walking guys, we could see some big numbers from this game as the Twins has multiple lefties who can make Covey pay here. Stack em up here with Kepler/Rosario/Polanco leading the way. Don’t sleep on a bottom of the order stack here too, with Jason Castro being in the middle of it. 

Bonus: For some fun potential BVP home run plays, be sure to check out, Diggin In, our BVP and stats article. 

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