Home Run Derby 5/29

In MLB by devinLeave a Comment

Main Slate

Austin Meadows– Don’t look now, but Austin Meadows is quietly crushing the ball. With a homer in 3 straight, I am looking for Meadows to keep that streak going!

Meadows is facing Trent Thornton of the Blue Jays. Thornton is pretty solid against righties, but boy does he struggle with lefties, especially in the power department. Thornton is giving up a massive .273 ISO to lefties! Thornton throws a 93 mph fastball to lefties 44% and a curve 27%.

Meadows profiles well against both pitches, especially 92-94 mph fastballs. He has a .364 ISO, 60% hard hit rate and an average distance of 315 feet against 92-94 mph fastballs. It comes as no surprise that in 3 plate appearances against Thornton, Meadows has 2 bombs!

This is a matchup I am looking to exploit and one that probably goes under owned considering their upside. Give me Meadows/Lowe/Choi/Kiermaier all day here. I wouldn’t be surprised one bit if Brandon Lowe homered as well!

Kevin Cron- For those who don’t know who Kevin Cron is, check out our preview of him in last weeks, Prospect Report.

Cron is batting 5th tonight in Coors against Jeff Hoffman. Hoffman has a terrible 5.02 xFIP with a .419 BABIP, suggesting he is even a bit worse that his numbers show! Look for Cron to show why he led all of baseball in homers before getting called up.

DBacks lineup just released and it is loaded with Fanduel Value! Do not shy away from chalk in GPP’s! Give me Cron/Locastro/Vargas exposure all day as great value plays in an elite hitting environment against a bad pitcher.

Early Slate

My top 5 highest rated bats from today’s early slate all come from the same game, Pirates @ Reds. It is warm, humid and has winds blowing out at 15 mph. Not surprisingly, vegas has this has the highest total game with the Reds Projected at 5.8 an Pirates 4.8. We will see homers here in a very hitter friendly ball park.

Nick Senzel & Eugenio Suarez– Our two highest rated bats. Followed by

Josh Bell & Bryan Reynolds– our 3rd and 4th highest bats. Lets see why

As you can see, there is a lot of green here. Steven Brault is giving up .370 wOBA and .189 ISO to righties, while DeSclafani continues to get smashed by lefties to the tune of .407 wOBA and .314 ISO! While all four bats here have .358+ wOBA and .221+ ISO.

This is a game you will want to stack. Reds offense has been red hot and Pirates profile great against DeSclafani as they are running out 2 lefties and 3 switch hitters. You can stack this game up any and every which way. I like all Reds as Brault could get chased early, putting a red hot Dietrich right in play once he gets a pen righty. And I like the Pirates lefties, 1-6. You can fade Marte in that stack or take him at potential lower ownership. 

We will be back around 3 with some main slate homer picks! 

Leave a Comment