We are back with a new week and another installment of Home Run Derby. For those new to us, this is where we take a look at some advanced stats to try and pick out a few players in a great spot to go long. Let’s dive right in!
David Dahl- A new week brings the start of a Coors slate. Coors field features the most or second most runs yearly. The park effect there is real and not to be ignored. While some games are going to disappoint, understand that with Coors games comes high ownership and high vegas totals. Let’s take a look at some numbers for both Dahl & Darvish.
As you can see, not only does Dahl rate high for us today, but so does Charlie Blackmon. Both are absolutely in play, but we are going to highlight Dahl today for a few reasons.
The first reason is ISO. ISO is essentially power, and we want power for homers. Both guys rate really close but Dahl just comes out ahead.
Our second reason is pitch success. Yu throws a decent mix of 4 pitches to lefties. Of these 4 pitches, Dahl has an ISO of .286 against the Cutter, .310 against the sinker and .410 against a 92-94 mph fastball (Yu throws 93 mph fastball). The last reason is David Dahl’s success at home. Check out his splits!
With a total approaching 6 implied runs, the Rockies will be a popular stack. Don’t be afraid of ownership in GPP’s and stack them up here. 1-5 is my favorite with the lefties leading the way.
Ji-Man Choi- Choi and the Rays are at home taking on Tanner Anderson of the A’s. Anderson is making his season debut and what should be a spot start. Anderson has a 11.1 innings of big league experience. In those 11 innings, he was beat up to the tune of a 6.35 ERA and 6.15 xFIP. His 6.25 ERA and 1.7 WHIP at AAA this season doesn’t exactly scream big league material here.
Anderson is going to have a tough time lasting more than a few innings here against a really good and deep Rays team. I actually rate Meadows/Lowe/Choi all within .2 of each other. What separates Choi is his success against the sinker, Anderson’s main pitch. Against sinkers from righties, Choi has a .529 wOBA, .343 ISO and an average distance of 334 feet.
I always love stacking the Rays as people somehow still haven’t realized how good they are. With the Yanks/Rockies/Nats all having higher totals, you should be able to once again grab the Rays at lower ownership. Give me the lefties here, but don’t be afraid to stack your favorites here.
Good luck tonight!