We will be adding in some ISO splits as well moving forward. Combing the ISO report in with the Home Run Derby. Let’s get started!
Before we pick some individual homer calls, lets go over some of the top ISO stacks on the slate. Our first is Padre lefties against Tyler Beede.
As you can see, Beede is getting SMASHED by lefties. Lucky for him, the Padres are incredibly righty heavy with only Hosmer currently projected to start. Check back to see if any of the other Padre lefties find themselves playing tonight. Homser and Naylor would be your power plays here if both start. But Greg Garcia is certainly in play if he leads off.
Next we have the Washington Nationals. That Nats went off last night scoring a dozen runs. They were featured as one of our top stacks and will be once again today. Check out why!
As you can see, Banuelos struggles against righties. Nats are a righty heavy team with a few guys who just crush lefties. Rendon is your top play here but all of these guys are absolutely in play against a poor arm in Manny and a poor pen behind him.
Our final 2 ISO stacks should come at very low ownership.
For Baltimore, not a ton of upside as only Wilkerson approaches the .200 ISO mark. But for the Brewers, you have a ton of upside at low ownership. Peacock is a good pitcher, but he has his issues with lefties. Not a good recipe against a lefty heavy Brewers squad. Especially one with the type of power the Brewers possess. Only Ben Game finds himself below the .200 ISO mark here.
Now lets take a look at some individual home run picks!
Matt Carpenter– Carpenter and the Cards are taking on Elieser Hernandez of the Marlins. Hernandez has a 6.2 xFIP, 50% fly ball rate, 50% medium contact rate and 35% hard contact. AKA, he isn’t very good. Let’s take a look at some numbers.
As you can see, a lot of green across the board here. On top of that, Hernandez relies heavily on his 90 mph fastball, a pitch Carpenter hits to the tune of .375 wOBA, .233 ISO with an average distance of 315 feet. Not a surprise that Carpenter is 1-1 with a homer against Hernandez.
Nolan Arenado- Arenado at home against a lefty? Yes please! We talked about this on the pod a bit last night. Arenado literally has hall of fame numbers against lefties, lets take a look below.
Those numbers for Arenado are insane. Almost a .400 ISO! What stands out today is Quintana’s main pitch to righties, a 91 mph fastball, is a pitch Arenado destroys. Nado has a .579 wOBA and .447 ISO against 90-92 fastballs from lefties.
Good luck tonight!