Home Run Derby 6/13

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We will be adding in some ISO splits as well moving forward. Combing the ISO report in with the Home Run Derby. Let’s get started!

Our top 2 ISO stacks actually come from the early slate and both from the same game.

As you can see, Kikuchi is actually getting hammered by lefties. While this is certainly a smaller sample, it it intriguing as most will stay away from the Twins lefties. If Max Kepler finds himself in the lineup, I like him here.

On the other side of the game, Pineda as really struggled this year. Getting absolutely torched by righties. I love Edwin Encarnacion in this spot and if Tom Murphy starts, fire him up as super low ownership with huge upside.

Moving on to our top main slate ISO stacks.

As you can see, we have a few nice ISO matchups tonight will multiple pitchers giving up a .200+ ISO over the last season+. J.D. Martinez, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts really stand out at the top as they all posses .239+ ISO. While Didi Gregorius, Aaron Hicks and Randal Grichuk all standout in nice matchups as well. Don’t be afraid to stack any of these listed teams. You need homers to take down gpp’s and plays are all in a nice matchup for just that.

Now let’s dive in to some individual homer picks.

Trevor Story– Back at home against a lefty? Yes please! Story and the Rockies are taking on Matt Strahm of the Padres. Strahm gives up a ton of hard contact, 41% and 41% fly ball rate..recipe for some bombs in Coors. 

What stands out for Story here is Strahms main pitch, a 92 mph fastball. Story hits 92-94 mph fastballs from lefties to the tune of .398 wOBA and .358 ISO with an insane 72% hard contact rate(!!) and an average distance of 332 feet! I don’t need to tell you to stack the Rockies here as that is obvious. Make sure Trevor Story is part of those stacks. 

Randal Grichuk– After trolling the DFS world last night, I am going right back to Grichuk tonight. The Blue Jays are back in Baltimore against Gabriel Ynoa and the awful Orioles bull pen (2nd worst in baseball). Ynoa has a 4.56 xFIP and struggles with righties with a .388 wOBA and .212 ISO, as highlighted above.

Like Story, Grichuk matches up really well against Ynoa’s main pitch, a 93 mph fastball. Against 92-94 mph fastballs from righties, Grichuk has a .456 wOBA, .400 ISO, 43% hard hit rate and an average distance of 335 feet. Camden Yard also has an above average home run rate allowed to righties.

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