Welcome back to another installment of Home Run Derby! Here we will be taking a look at the top ISO stacks of the day as well as a few individual home run calls. Lets dig in!
Our top ISO stack is the Detroit Tigers. The Tigers are at home taking on rookie Mitch Keller. Keller is a highly touted prospect who has a high ceiling but is still figuring out how to put it all together. Through his first two starts, he has gotten smacked, evident looking at these numbers. Lucky for Keller, the Tigers are one of the worst teams against righties, with only Brandon Dixon having an ISO over .200. Typically I would be all over a stack against a pitcher giving up these types of numbers, but the Tigers just aren’t very good. With a vegas implied total around 4, expect low ownership here. You certainly could stack these Tigers though if you feel Keller continues to struggle.
Our next few stacks make a bit more sense. As you can see, the Astros get DeSclafani, who struggles with lefties. The Rangers get rookie Zach Plesac, who struggles with lefties, in a massive hitters park on a 90 degree day against a team with plenty of power lefties. And the Red Sox get Micheal Pinhead Pineda, who struggles with power to righties, not a good thing about J.D. and company. All of these stacks are in play, with the highlighted guys being my favorites. Now let’s take a look at some individual home run calls!
Matt Chapman– Chapman and the A’s are at home taking on Gabriel Ynoa and the dreadful O’s pen. So far this season, Ynoa is actually carrying reverse splits, really struggling with righties. Let’s take a look at both Ynoa’s and Chapmans numbers here.
As you can see, we are looking at green across the board (green is good). What’s more, Ynoa relies heavily on a 93 mph fastball to righties. Against 92-94 mph fastballs from righties this season, Matt Chapman has a .486 wOBA, .500 ISO and an average distance of 350 feet! Not only do I love Chapman here, but I love the top 4 projected bats here in Marcus Semien, Matt Chapman, Matt Olson and Khris Davis.
Carlos Santana– The Indians are once again in Texas and find themselves in an elite hitting environment against an inconsistent young arm. While most DFS players will flock to Lindor (can’t blame them, he will be a high owned play and a good one), or Jose Ramirez/Jason Kipnis for value, I am looking at Carlos Santana as a sneaky home run play. Let’s take a look why.
Sampson is a sinker ball thrower, Throwing it right around 54% to both lefties and righties. Santana leads the team with a .450 wOBA, .338 ISO and an average distance of 337 feet against sinkers from righties. Santana isn’t the only Indian with nice numbers against the sinker though. As a matter of fact, most of the lineup has good numbers. Lindor, Kipnis and Ramirez all have .200+ ISO while Bauers and Santana are over .300. While the Indians have burnt the industry many times this season, this definitely profiles as great spot for them.
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