Home Run Derby 6/19

In MLB by devinLeave a Comment

Hey all, before we get started I just wanted to thank all of you who have been with us over the last 4+ years. It has been a wild ride and I loved every minute of it. Today officially marks day 1 of a new chapter for myself and the Solutions team as we are officially switching from full lineups to core plays only. This switch allows us to concentrate on providing awesome content and begin to teach players how to get better at creating your own lineups. DFS can be so hard and a big part of it is the fact that nobody helps you learn! We want to change that and help you succeed! If you are struggling to create your own lineups or you have tried every provider out there and none are worth the money, consider becoming a VIP for only $24.99 a month. Our premium content allows you to learn how to build not just gpp lineups, but cash lineups. While also not forcing you to research for hours or a day or spend hundreds on content sites. So again thank you to all those who have given us a chance and all those who are continuing with us on this wild ride! 

Yesterday we went with Matt Chapman and Carlos Santana as our homer calls while also highlighting a few bats from both teams. Lets take a look at those results.

Outside of Lindor, who was chalk city, all listed players went off! 

Main Slate

Shin-Soo Choo– Choo and the Rangers are once again at home for another game against the Indians. Cleveland is rolling out Adam Plutko tonight. Plutko owns a 5.39 xFIP, gives up a on of fly balls at 54% and has struggled mightely against lefties over the past season+ with a .398 wOBA and .311 ISO.

As you can see, Choo has a lot in his favor tonight. Add in a hitters park in the 80’s to that list. Also, Plutko throws a 91 mph fastball to lefties 62% of the time. A pitch which Choo hits to the tune of .434 wOBA, .272 ISO and 48% hard contact rate over 2018-19 seasons.

Plutko is not very good and our rankings reflect that. We have 4 Rangers in the top 10 of our stats/vegas based rankings. Choo/Cabrera/Calhoun/Guzman/Santana all rate very well here.

Shohei Ohtani– The Angels are taking on Aaron Sanchez and the Blue Jays. Sanchez owns a 5.23 xFIP and is walking people at a high rate while not striking people out, a poor combination.

What stands out about Ohtani here is his history against not just Sanchez’s top pitch, but all 4 pitches he throws to lefties. Sanchez throws a 93 mph fastball 32%, changeup 26%, sinker 26% and curve 16%. Ohtani has an ISO over .200 against both the changeup and curve, a .370 ISO against 92-94 mph fastballs and a monster .547 ISO against sinkers.

Angels are finally getting healthy and the offensive results are following. I like the top 5 here of La Stella/Trout/Ohtani/Upton/Calhoun and can also see a Bour punt.

Bonus: I once again like the Indians with Lindor and Luplow leading the way. We also have 3 Pirates in our top 7 with Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds and Gregory Polanco.

Early Slate

Matt Olson- The A’s continue their series with the O’s today with an afternoon game at 3:37. Not surprisingly, the A’s have a MASSIVE implied total of 6.4 runs! That is because they are taking on Jimmy Yacabonis and the dreadful O’s pen.

Yacabonis has a dreadful 6.43 xFIP (Yikes), he can’t strike anybody out with a 13.5% K rate, gives up over 50% fly ball rate and his BABIP of .290 suggests it isn’t going to get much better. What more is he is giving up a silly .432 wOBA, .370 ISO, 62% fly ball rate (!), and a 43% hard hit rate to lefties this year in 30 plate appearances.

Yacabonis relies almost exclusively on a fastball sinker. Against sinkers from righties, Olson has a .399 wOBA, .318 ISO, 48% hard hit rate and an average distance of 327 feet. Just like yesterday, Stack these A’s. If Jimmy gets chased quickly, the pen has the 2nd worst ERA in the league with an ERA of 6! So righties and lefties are in play here for the A’s. Looking strictly at the sinker, Mark Canha, Matt Chapman, Khris Davis and Ramon Laureano all have an ISO over .200. While Olson has the .318 ISO as mentioned above.

We will have some main slate picks after early lock!

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