Home Run Derby 6/7

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Let’s dig in to today’s 14 game main slate for some potential homers. 

Christian Yelich– I try and shy away from the blatantly obvious picks and try and find some potentially lower owned plays. But Yelich is too good to pass up today. Yelich and the Brew Crew are at home taking on Rookie Davis and the Pittsburgh Pirates. Let’s take a look at some numbers to see why Yelich is in such a good spot. 

As you can see, those are some crazy high numbers across the board! Rookie Davis is giving up a near .400 wOBA to lefties nd a .308 ISO! Add in the fact that Yelich has an insane .444 wOBA and .319 ISO against righties and you have an easy recipe for success. Just to make things even jucies, Rookie Davis throws a 91 mph fastball 53% of the time to lefties. Yelich hits 90-02 mph fastballs from righties to the tune of .514 wOBA, .351 ISO with a crazy 94% contact rate!

Rookie Davis and the Pirates are in for a long day. The entire Brewers lineup is in play here as Davis probably gets chased early. So don’t shy away from righties here either. This is a golden spot for Travis Shaw to actually do something too. Stack this team multiple ways, with a priority on Yelich and Moustakas.

Alex Bregman– Alex Bregman is on pace to surpass his career high of 31 homers set last year. Last year he hit a homer every 23 plate appearances or so. This year he is hitting a homer every 15 plate appearances. He finds himself in a great spot against Gabriel Ynoa and the dreadful Orioles staff. Lets take a look at some numbers.

As you can see, a ton of green here too. While Bregman doesn’t posses the level of power that Yelich does, he still has very impressive numbers. Like Yelich, he also profiles very well against Ynoa’s main pitch, a 93 mph fastball. Against 92-94 mph fastball’s from righties, Bregman has a .467 wOBA, .320 ISO and average distance of 323 feet. 

As is almost always the case, you can stack the Astros here. Ynoa has reverse splits so I prefer the righties here. But with a terrible bull pen following him, the Astros lefties are absolutely in play as well. My sneaky play here is Robinson Chirinos who is quietly having a monster season and has homers in 4 straight games! 

Juan Soto- Our last pick of the day finds himself against a lefty in a pitchers park. So why pick him? Well Nick Margevicius has shown DRASTIC reverse splits early in his career. With a 5.13 xFIP, 40% hard contact rate and a whopping .459 wOBA and .365 ISO against lefties. On the flip side, Soto has shown that he is an elite hitter to not just righties, but lefties as well. Let’s take a look at our numbers here.

As you can see, Margevicius numbers against lefties are crazy bad. His advanced stats suggest they won’t be getting much better either. Add in the fact that he is in very poor recent form, see below, and you have a recipe for a nice game for Juan Soto, hopefully capped off by a homer! 

Bonus: How about a little BVP action for you fans of that stats.

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