Arizona @ San Diego 10:10 PM
As you can see, Vegas likes this to be a low scoring affair. Two young, talented pitchers in this game. Both pitchers actually throw very similar pitches with both relying on a 93 mph fastball over 50% to both sides of the plate and a changeup as their second pitch.
Paddack has better advanced stats with a solid 3.69 xFIP while Weaver has a 4.43 xFIP. Let’s take a look at both guys history in this matchup.
Keep in mind the small sample size here. Let’s see if any of these results matchup with some advanced pitch stats.
For the DBacks, Escobar, Peralta and Jones lead the way against 92-94 mph fastballs with all 3 having .390+ wOBA and .227+ ISO, though all 3 have poor numbers against Paddacks second pitch, the changeup. Against the changeup, only Nick Ahmed has quality numbers with a .379 wOBA and .280 ISO.
For the Padres, the entire lineup has at least a .321 wOBA with Reyes leading the way with a .503 wOBA. The entire lineup also has a .208+ ISO with only Garcia and Renfroe falling below that mark. Once again, Reyes leads the team with a .550 ISO. Against the changeup, Renfroe, Hosmer and Myers all have .331+ wOBA and .222+ ISO.
On paper this game definitely favors the Padres. Looking at the Padres success against Weavers two main pitches definitely lines up with their success against him. I do believe Weaver is improve though so I wouldn’t surprised if either/both arms threw a gem here. But if I am playing this, I am definitely looking to attack with Padres hitters. Reyes, Machado, Myers being my top 3.