LEC – Summer Split 7/17

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LEC is back for Summer split. They are best of 1 series.  

Odds

Standings

Team Stats

SK Gaming vs Team Vitality

Vitality is bringing in Skeanz as their new jungler over Nji and the move is likely a positive one. Nji was playing terribly even in VIT victories. Skeanz fits this meta well as he is known as a solid Nidalee(great poke style champion) one trick so I think he has the potential to make an instant impact. Last time these two teams met, VIT came away with a relatively easy victory. This game is listed as a coin flip but I think Vitality is clearly the better team right now. Comp and Labrov have been locking down the bot lane in their victories and are sporting an impressive 80% KP rate. The key to this game for VIT is to scale to mid/late game where they can use their talented bot lane to send SK to their 4th straight loss.

SK: Crownshot(gpp one off)
VIT: Milica, Comp, Labrov

Rogue vs S04

I’m a big fan of Rogue and thing they have a solid chance to finish top 3-4 this split. They were red hot heading into the break with a 7-2 record and get to start the second half of the split against the lowly S04 squad. Rogue is the best early game team in LEC and they should assert their dominance early and snowball the game out of control quickly. S04 is also averaging 16.5 deaths per contest so there isn’t much worry about Rogue not making value in this one. They’re a lock in all formats.

RGE: Everyone
S04: EZ Fade

Fnatic vs Misfits Gaming

Fnatic had about one of the worst 1st halfs imaginable for a team with worlds aspirations. The break was exactly what the doctor ordered and this game is going to tell us a lot about Fnatics testicular fortitude. This is a solid gpp spot to target them but I won’t touch them in cash until they start proving to me they can play like Spring Split Fnatic. Misfits should also have a better second half to the split as their synergy with Kobbe has improved every week. I’ll take Fnatic to win here but it wouldn’t shock me one bit to see Misfits steal it. I will say that if Fnatic drops this game I’ll be ignoring them for fantasy purposes going forward.

FNC: SelfMade, Nemesis
MSF: Febiven, Kobbe

Mad Lions vs Excel Gaming

There is a good chance this is going to be the bloodiest game on the slate as Mad averages 17.5 kills per win and XL averages 16.5 deaths per loss. Mad is one of the better LEC teams when it comes to late game team fights so if XL wants to win they’re going to have to control the early game and try to build a large gold lead. Even that won’t be a guarantee though as Mad has come from deficits before. At the end of the day both teams are tournament viable but I trust guys like Humanoid, Carzzy, and Kaiser more. I think Mad ends up being on the optimal so don’t be afraid to load up.

MAD: Everyone
XL: Special, Patrik

Origen vs G2 Esports

Perkz will be returning after a short hiatus for personal reasons and this should be a big boom to G2’s overall confidence and gameplay. G2 has looked extremely pedestrian this split but I don’t expect that to continue for much longer. I’m expecting a statement win from Caps and the gang against a really bad Origen team. The only concern for G2 is having some of their kill upside mitigated by Origens methodical game play but I think G2 just ends up pushing team fights repeatedly until Origen is beaten into submission. I’m still leery of going all in on G2 until I see their old selves show up but I will definitely have one off exposure somewhere in my lineups.

G2: Caps, Perkz, Mikyx
ORG: FADE

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