Welcome back after a split slate Thursday. I hope you all are using the article to help you make decisions and make some money. If there is anything that you would like to see added/changed/elaborated on, please let me know and we can talk about it. I’m always looking to get better! Huge slate, lots of options so let’s get to it.
Nationals: oh hey there. Nats rounding into form? I think so and they are getting healthy. Tonight they go up against Big MARGG, who I think will be a decent pitcher eventually but tonight is not a good spot for him. Considering the park he pitches in, Marg’s numbers aren’t very reflective of that. Currently rocking a 5.13 xFIP, 15% k-rate, 40% hard contact, and under a 10% swinging strike rate. Why is that important? The majority of the Nats have a very low strike out rate. So if they aren’t striking out, they are either walking or getting the bat on the ball. We like when are players connect don’t we? Marg’s wOBA and ISO are over .338 and .208 to both sides, but the lefties are much higher. Allowing a .461 wOBA and a .365 ISO to lefties, leads me to Soto and Eaton. Both have over a .400 wOBA to lefties where Soto is the one with more power. The righties on this team mash lefties as well. My favorites in order are Rendon, Kendrick, Turner, Dozier, Suzuki, and Robles. Using Suzuki is a great way to go tonight for your catcher spot if he starts. I know the park isn’t in the favor of our batters, but if they don’t homer, I expect a lot of extra base hits tonight for these Nats.
Mets: Oh boy these Mets. They are frustrating at times, but they do have their spots. Tonight is one of them against Antonio Senzatela. Senzatela has a 5.02 xFIP, 6.4% swinging strike rate, 40% hard contact, and 13.7% k-rate. Honestly, that’s so bad. His only saving grace is that he gets a lot of ground balls. Most of these Mets have a fly ball rate greater than 30%, so I think that evens out a bit tonight. Add in the fact that Senzatela allows a .423 wOBA and .213 ISO to lefties, I just can’t get away from the Mets. Pete Alonso does work against righties so don’t forget about him. I love Conforto here, followed by Alonso, McNeil, Cano, and to a lesser extent Rosario. With DeGrom pitching for them, look for them to help deliver the run support he rarely gets tonight.
Dodgers: I mean did you really think I wouldn’t like them here? They are #3 because they are playing in SF which limits their power. SF will be using Pomeranz tonight who has had a decent year. That being said, I can’t see it continuing. He is allowing a .443 wOBA and .289 ISO to righties. He’s a little bit better to lefties, but gives up more hard contact to them. He does have the park in his favor, but the Dodgers have one of the highest upsides in the league. I’m assuming they will run out Taylor, Turner, Freese, and I like them in that reverse order. I won’t shy away from Bellinger, because he also does well against lefties. Muncy has great numbers vs lefties as well, and if he gets pushed down the lineup around 6-7, he will be very contrarian. Kike is also a priority here, especially if he’s in the 5-hole. Finally, I would use a cheap Austin Barnes as my catcher if stacking these guys up. Look for them to pour it on here in San Fran tonight.
Pitchers To Consider:
- DeGrom (DK Lock)
- Bailey (great spot for him!!)
Favorite One Offs:
- Josh Bell
- Austin Meadows