10 Day Report
Above is our 10 day report. It features some basic stats to give you a snap shot of how a team has been performing over the last 10 days. After all star break and teams taking their week off, we are finally back to a quality sample size with every team but SJ having played 4-6 games the last 10 days. SJ has only played 3 games. You can see today’s rankings match up pretty well with Vegas implied totals.
Another thing I like to do is take a look at opposing goalies numbers. Our cheat sheet utilizes home/away splits to give a better representation of a goalies form on the year (for insance, Carter Hart is amazing at home and just dreadful on the road, important to know when to attack him).
First thing that stands out is Bobrovsky’s dreadful road numbers. Paired with the fact that Philly averages 3.58 goals per game at home, 3rd highest, and you can see why Philly has the slate high implied total. I also see a really nice double GPP stack in Nashville vs. Vancouver with both teams averaging over 3.5 goals splits wise. In terms of which goalies to use tonight, you can see the Vegas plays make a ton of sense in net tonight as they draw solid matchups.
Note: Very very early in the day. Make sure you confirm goalies before lock!
Now lets dig in to some offensive stats and find some targets.
Last we have our line production chart. As the heading states, this is how each line + defensive pairing has performed on the year based on home/away splits.
Now that we have a very detailed look at some numbers, time for some plays.
The first place I like to start when deciding on who to build around is our Report Card, specifically the “A+” plays. In order for a player to receive an A+ grade, they need to meet the following requirements: Average at least 1 point per game over the last week and month. Average at least 1 point per game for the season based on home/away splits, be a member of a power play and have an implied Vegas total of 3 goals or higher. I find this important because this helps me target guys who are playing well not only right now, but for an extended period and also guys who do well at home or on the road (some guys splits are drastic).
Note: On small slates, I list A+, A and B plays! (With Seth Jones ruled out this morning, I would expect the TB total to climb a bit, which would make Kucherov and Stamkos A+ plays)
Now that we have all the info digested, let’s take a look at some plays!
Philadelphia PP1- We talked above about how bad Bob is on the road and how good Philly is at home. I especially love the top power play unit which is loaded with 5 really good players. Sean Couturier is one of only 2 A+ plays on today’s slate.
Washington PP1- The entire top line of Ovechkin, Backstrom and Oshie find themselves ranked in the top 3 of today’s NHL cheat sheet. A big part of that is due to the fact that the Islanders are giving up 52.25 Corsi against and 10.29 high dangers chances against on the road. Carlson is also our top rated defender and of course Vrana is always a threat to score as well.
Tampa Bay PP1- Kucherov and Stamkos are absolutely red hot right now. They have a difficult matchup against a really really good defensive team in Columbus tonight. BUT, the loss of Seth Jones certainly is going to hurt the Blue Jackets and its hard to imagine them slowing down Kuch and Stamkos.
Philadelphia PP2- While the top unit is the main target, the 2nd unit offers some value that is absolutely viable. If you find yourself unable to afford the top unit, consider this unit.
Nashville Value- Nashville can’t make up their mind on lines. But they are giving us plenty of value. Mikael Granlund is on the top line and top PP unit. Kyle Turris is centering Arvidsson and Forsberg and Craig Smith also finds himself on the top PP unit. All offer cheap exposure to Roman Josi, who is a top play today.
Tanner Pearson & Jake Virtanen- Boeser hit he IR today. Jake Virtanen moves up to take his spot on the 2nd line while Pearson takes his spot on the top PP unit. Vancouver is drastically better at home and these guys are cheap exposure to the Canucks best players.
Montreal PP2- Montreal has quietly put together a really deep team and are making a playoff push. Drouin is back and min priced on Fanduel.
GPP Stacks- All the plays mentioned above are GPP viable as well. Never be afraid of high owned plays in GPP’s. The idea that you can only take down a gpp with all 1% owned guys is false. For a lower owned stack or lower owned one offs (great to mix with chalk plays who are in smash spots!), Vancouver/Nashville double stack, Montreal 1, Florida 3 (Value)
Be sure to utilize our NHL Cheat Sheet to help you finalize your lineups. It features: player pricing, projections, player stats/advanced stats based on home/away splits, opponent stats, power play stats, suggested plays, customizable rankings & more!