Just 3 games tonight. But still money to be made, so let’s dig in!
10 Day Report
Above is our 10 day report. It features some basic stats to give you a snap shot of how a team has been performing over the last 10 days. This typically means the last 4-6 games for a team, which is the case today. You can see that our rankings line up pretty well with Vegas totals, the exception being our Rankings being very high on Calgary, who is running hot lately. Love stacking them today in a gpp (cash viable as well) while everyone else goes Vancouver/Boston.
Another thing I like to do is take a look at opposing goalies numbers. Our cheat sheet utilizes home/away splits to give a better representation of a goalies form on the year (for insance, Carter Hart is amazing at home and just dreadful on the road, important to know when to attack him).
Note: Not all goalies are confirmed. Always confirm goalie before lock!
Now lets dig in to some offensive stats and find some targets.
DVP (defense vs. position)
These numbers are how the opposing team ranks against each position. I took the average fantasy points allowed to each position and ranked them. The higher the number, the worse the opponent is against that position. Easy way to look at it is green is good for the team in the far left column and red is bad!
DVP is something that nobody really looks at for hockey but it does carry a little bit of weight. I find it very useful when deciding between 2 plays who I have as dead even.
Last we have our line production chart. As the heading states, this is how each line + defensive pairing has performed on the year based on home/away splits.
Now that we have a very detailed look at some numbers, time for some plays.
The first place I like to start when deciding on who to build around is our Report Card, specifically the “A+” plays. In order for a player to receive an A+ grade, they need to meet the following requirements: Average at least 1 point per game over the last week and month. Average at least 1 point per game for the season based on home/away splits, be a member of a power play and have an implied Vegas total of 3 goals or higher. I find this important because this helps me target guys who are playing well not only right now, but for an extended period and also guys who do well at home or on the road (some guys splits are drastic).
Note: On small slates, I list A+, A and B plays!
Now that we have all the info digested, let’s take a look at some plays!
Vancouver PP1- We can see in the grade section that Hughes and Pettersson are A plays here while J.T. Miller is an A+ play. Vancouver is scoring a slate high 3.67 goals per game at the home while Chicago is on the 2nd night of a back to back and starting Corey Crawford, who is giving up a slate worst 2.91 goals per game on the road. Looking like Brandon Sutter is on the top unit..he offers dirt cheap exposure to the unit.
Boston PP1- Boston 1 at home, yes please. You can see on our line production chart above that Boston 1 + the top defender pairing has 118 points on the year at home. That is 23 more points than any other line on the slate. DeBrusk and Krug offer cheaper exposure if you can’t afford the big boys.
Calgary PP1- We noted in the 10 day data how good Calgary has been lately. Their big boys have turned it on late after a dreadful first few months to start the year. No Giordano opens up a value in Noah Hanifin.
Vancouver PP2 + Macewen/Edler- With Boeser out, Vancouver offers a nice mix of value in their top 6. Macewen is on the top line with Horvat and Miller while Tanner Pearson and Jake Virtanen are on the Pettersson line. Edler is very cheap on Fanduel and while his lack of power play time isn’t ideal, he is certainly viable if you land on him.
Calgary PP2- Backlund and Mangiapane are on the 2nd line with Tkachuk (Tkachuk and Backlund are red hot) and both on the 2nd power play together. The other 3 here are playing decent right now as well and are viable punts.
Zach Smith- If you need a flat out punt, consider Smith. He has been moved up to the top power play unit at near min price.
GPP Stacks- All the plays mentioned above are GPP viable as well. Never be afraid of high owned plays in GPP’s. The idea that you can only take down a gpp with all 1% owned guys is false. For a lower owned stack or lower owned one offs (great to mix with chalk plays who are in smash spots!), Chicago PP1 (Kubalik FINALLY on the top unit)
Be sure to utilize our NHL Cheat Sheet to help you finalize your lineups. It features: player pricing, projections, player stats/advanced stats based on home/away splits, opponent stats, power play stats, suggested plays, customizable rankings & more!