Just 3 games tonight. But still money to be made, so let’s dig in!
10 Day Report
Above is our 10 day report. It features some basic stats to give you a snap shot of how a team has been performing over the last 10 days. This typically means the last 4-6 games for a team. For the most part that is the case today, though a few teams are just a 3 game sample. For the most part today matches up fairly well with Vegas. You can see a few intriguing stacks that will be low owned due to their lower totals in teams like the Islanders, Rangers, Blues and Flames.
Another thing I like to do is take a look at opposing goalies numbers. Our cheat sheet utilizes home/away splits to give a better representation of a goalies form on the year (for insance, Carter Hart is amazing at home and just dreadful on the road, important to know when to attack him).
Speaking of Carter Hart, you can see just how bad he is at home. Not good when you are taking on a potent Florida offense that excels at home with 3.82 goals per game. Dallas is missing Pavelski and Radulov tonight, which is why Dallas has such a low total. Freddie is in play but expensive. I would expect people to grab some value in net in guys like Blackwood or one of the DK goalies in the 7.5k range.
Note: Not all goalies are confirmed. Always confirm goalie before lock!
Now lets dig in to some offensive stats and find some targets.
Last we have our line production chart. As the heading states, this is how each line + defensive pairing has performed on the year based on home/away splits.
We can see just how dominate a few lines are in Toronto 1, Washington 1, Florida 1 and Colorado 1. Even a Minnesota 1 quietly has solid numbers. Despite missing a handful of their top players, Tampa Bay still has solid numbers as well, speaking to their depth.
Now that we have a very detailed look at some numbers, time for some plays.
The first place I like to start when deciding on who to build around is our Report Card, specifically the “A+” plays. In order for a player to receive an A+ grade, they need to meet the following requirements: Average at least 1 point per game over the last week and month. Average at least 1 point per game for the season based on home/away splits, be a member of a power play and have an implied Vegas total of 3 goals or higher. I find this important because this helps me target guys who are playing well not only right now, but for an extended period and also guys who do well at home or on the road (some guys splits are drastic).
Note: On small slates, I list A+, A and B plays!
Now that we have all the info digested, let’s take a look at some plays!
Florida PP1- We talked about Carter Hart’s struggles on the road above as well as Florida’s great home numbers. I love the top line any time they are at home as they all are on the top power play unit as well.
Colorado PP1 + Burakovsky- The Avs at home are averaging nearly 4 goals per game at home. They are also taking on a Caps team that is really struggling defensively right now, having given up an average of 4 goals per game since the break. Colorado also gives us some value with Barkovsky and Donskoi.
Toronto PP1- Auston Matthews at home? Sign me up. 29 goals in 29 home games on the year. Add in elite players to the rest of this unit and you have one of the best units in hockey, especially at home.
Vegas 2- This line is on the cusp of exploding nightly. Their advanced stats have been off the charts all season long and now Stone/Patches get a massive upgrade at center with Wild Bill William Karlsson.
Kevin Fiala- Holy hot streak. Fiala is red hot right now and still very affordable on Draftkings.
Blake Coleman- A whopping 1.6k cheaper on Fanduel than Draftkings. In great recent form.
New Jersey 1- Detroit is giving up a slate high 9.72 high danger chances per game. Bernier is the only reason Detroit isn’t getting throttled nightly
Tampa Bay PP1- Ton of value here with all the injuries to Tampa Bay. Despite the injuries, they still have the highest total on the board and this is still a really really good unit.
GPP Stacks- All the plays mentioned above are GPP viable as well. Never be afraid of high owned plays in GPP’s. The idea that you can only take down a gpp with all 1% owned guys is false. For a lower owned stack or lower owned one offs (great to mix with chalk plays who are in smash spots!), Calgary PP1, New York Islanders 1, Philly PP1, Edmonton PP1
Be sure to utilize our NHL Cheat Sheet to help you finalize your lineups. It features: player pricing, projections, player stats/advanced stats based on home/away splits, opponent stats, power play stats, suggested plays, customizable rankings & more!