After last nights absolute monster 13 game slate, tonight brings us a 2 gamer that starts at 7:30. Still money to be made, regardless of slate size. So let’s dig in!
10 Day Report
Above is our 10 day report. It features some basic stats to give you a snap shot of how a team has been performing over the last 10 days. This typically means the last 4-6 games for a team, but with all star break and teams starting to take their long breaks, today’s is 2-4 games. We are slowly getting back to a solid sample size.
Another thing I like to do is take a look at opposing goalies numbers. Our cheat sheet utilizes home/away splits to give a better representation of a goalies form on the year (for insance, Carter Hart is amazing at home and just dreadful on the road, important to know when to attack him).
This is a really interesting slate. Toronto has the highest total and you can see they score a slate high 3.81 goals per game on the road. But Igor has been really solid at home. On the flip side, Hutchinson is forced in to net tonight with Freddie Anderson hurt and you can see how bad Hutch has been on the road with a 4.73 goals against average while the Rangers average a solid 3.48 goals per game at home. Halak is probably the safest play on the board in net but there are no slam dunks here.
Note: Everyone is confirmed but Lehner. I expect him to start as Crawford started last night. But always need to confirm before lock!
Now lets dig in to some offensive stats and find some targets.
DVP (defense vs. position)
These numbers are how the opposing team ranks against each position. I took the average fantasy points allowed to each position and ranked them. The higher the number, the worse the opponent is against that position. Easy way to look at it is green is good for the team in the far left column and red is bad!
DVP is something that nobody really looks at for hockey but it does carry a little bit of weight. I find it very useful when deciding between 2 plays who I have as dead even.
Last we have our line production chart. As the heading states, this is how each line + defensive pairing has performed on the year based on home/away splits.
Now that we have a very detailed look at some numbers, time for some plays.
The first place I like to start when deciding on who to build around is our Report Card, specifically the “A+” plays. In order for a player to receive an A+ grade, they need to meet the following requirements: Average at least 1 point per game over the last week and month. Average at least 1 point per game for the season based on home/away splits, be a member of a power play and have an implied Vegas total of 3 goals or higher. I find this important because this helps me target guys who are playing well not only right now, but for an extended period and also guys who do well at home or on the road (some guys splits are drastic).
Note: On small slates, I list A+, A and B plays!
Now that we have all the info digested, let’s take a look at some plays!
New York Rangers PP1- Our numbers above support a lot of Rangers. Between their rankings in the 10 day data section, Hutchinson’s dreadful road numbers and 3 members of the power play unit having A+ grades, you can see why I like the Rangers here. Pay attention to Chris Kreiders status as if he is out, Buchnevich takes his spot on the top unit and gets a large boost.
Boston PP1- If you follow NHL at all, I don’t have to tell you about the Boston big 3. Our line production chart above shows just how dominate the top line (+ top defensive pairing) has been this year. They take on a Chicago team who is giving up 10.19 high dangers chances per game, dangerous against a elite sniper like Pastrnak.
Toronto PP1- All 5 guys are graded B or better here on our report card and all 5 rank in the top 3 of their positions on today’s cheat sheet. The Rangers allow a slate high 48.26 corsi against and 9.96 high danger chances per game.
Boston 2- Krejci and DeBrusk are playing well right now and both find themselves as A plays today. You can add in Kuhlman who is minimum price on both sites.
Hyman/Kerfoot- Cheap exposure to the top 6. Both guys are playing huge minutes too.
Fast/Di Giuseppe/Fox- The Di Giuseppe play is dependent on Kreiders status. If Di Giuseppe finds himself on the top line, he is a viable punt. Fast plays with Panarin and Fox is a young stud who plays well at home.
GPP Stacks- All the plays mentioned above are GPP viable as well. Never be afraid of high owned plays in GPP’s. The idea that you can only take down a gpp with all 1% owned guys is false. For a lower owned stack or lower owned one offs (great to mix with chalk plays who are in smash spots!), Chicago PP1/2.
Be sure to utilize our NHL Cheat Sheet to help you finalize your lineups. It features: player pricing, projections, player stats/advanced stats based on home/away splits, opponent stats, power play stats, suggested plays, customizable rankings & more!