Welcome back Tennis fans! The 2020 season is here and we are starting you off with coverage from day 1. Our industry leading cheat sheet features all the stats you need to build a quality lineup every slate. A few things to remember with Tennis.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden's in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn't outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Week 1 is in the books and it was a solid week over all. We were right around 50% with our picks, which I am ok with considering we don't just give you all expensive plays that are impossible to build a lineup with. We are giving you plays that allow you to fit quality pieces around and put you in a position to cash nightly. Let's dig in to day 1 of a new week!
Sam Querrey- We finally have our first Ace heavy player which gives me a chance to give my thoughts on Ace players. What you will see a lot in Tennis is ace upside plays are chalk city. This is because aces are valuable in Tennis DFS and can lead to monster scores and also provide ace plays with a fairly safe floor. BUT, I have a bit of a different take than the rest of the industry.
I am NOT going to just jam in an ace play because they hit a ton of aces. Most of your heavy ace players struggle mightily to break serve, which means they are playing a ton of games. Which every game you lose is a negative for your point total and can cancel out the ace upside. So what I do is I play ace players who are favored, especially if decently heavy favorites and at a reasonable price.
With that out of the way, we have Querrey, who leads the slate with 1.25 aces per game. He finds himself a -200 favorite and a $9400 he isn't going to kill your build. Expect Querrey to be chalky, and in this scenario, it is chalk worth eating if you can afford him.
Note: There are typically a few ways to build your Tennis lineups. 1. All favorites. In order to take down a GPP, you need all 6 of your players to win their match. For cash games, you can get away with a loss or two. It is usually possible to build an all favorites lineup, but you will be looking at a few pick em or slight favorite plays to make it work. 2. Take a shot on a punt who you think has a shot to win. This opens up salary to get a few more big favorites and is certainly a viable strategy for cash games. For GPP’s, you are hurting your chances unless that punt play picks up the win.
With the above note in mind, we are going to take a look at a cheaper, slight under dog who is worth considering as well as a punt option worth considering. If you wish to go the all favorites route, (which is fine!) utilize our cheat sheet to help easily accomplish this.
Svetlana Kuznetsova- Kuznetsova is a +100 under dog (essentially a pick em). It's not a surprise to see such a close line here considering how close Kuznetsova and her opponent, Magda Linette are today. Our rankings, which take in to account the players hard court stats & recent form and rank them, have the 2 less than a point apart. In main draw, hard court matches over the last 12 months, Kuznetosova is 9-5 (64%) while Linnette is 21-13 (62%).
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova- Pavlyuchenkova is taking on Anett Kontaveit, who was actually her doubles partner just a week ago. They have met 4 times with Konttaveit winning 3 of the 4. But 2 of those were on clay court. The other 2, which were on hard court, were split with Pavlyuchenkova winning the last one. I think Kontaveit wins here, but I like pavlyuchenkova to push her and grab some points in the process. At only 5.9k, a few points would be enough to make the punt worth it.
Keep in mind if you decide to pick an under dog, it is important your safe picks all come through to make the punt worth it!
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck and let's have some fun this Tennis season!