Welcome back Tennis fans! The 2020 season is here and we are starting you off with coverage from day 1. Our industry leading cheat sheet features all the stats you need to build a quality lineup every slate. A few things to remember with Tennis.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden's in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn't outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Now that we have hit the home stretch of week 1, we are looking at a very small, 8 match slate. When the slates get this little, I don't like to give out picks. Instead, I will highlight a few matches where you can consider taking the under dog to clear up funds. Remember, at this point the matches are very even and in today's case, only one player is bigger than a -235 favorite.
Elena Rybakina vs. Kristyna Pliskova- Rybakina is a -175 favorite here but gets a tough task of trying to defeat Kristyna Pliskova. Kristyna is serving at a very high rate right now, hitting 16 aces last match and only conceding one break point and on top of that, she has yet to drop a set his tournament. Rybakina on the other hand has had to fight her way here with 2 of her 3 matches going to 3 sets. Rybakina is a rising start, but Kristyna Pliskova is playing well right now and very well could pull off the slight upset.
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Garbine Muguruza- This match is essentially a pick em with Alexandrova being a slight -125 favorite. Muguruza does hold the 1-0 lead in career meetings between these 2, though that was on grass. On hard court, Muguruza is 20-10 (67%) over the last 12 months in main draws while Alexandrova is 15-12 (56%). If we compare common opponents, Muguruza is 5-4 compared to Alexandrova's 1-2. So there are definitely some reasons to think Muguruza can win as a slight under dog.
Julia Goerges vs. Caroline Wozniacki- Another incredibly close match with Goerges being a -130 favorite. The two have met 10 times with Goerges winning 6-4 meetings, inlcuind the 2 most recent meetings, both of which were on hard court. In main draw hard court matches over the last 12 matches, the 2 are almost dead even with Wozniacki 14-9 (61%) and Goerges 15-9 (63%). I think Goerges does win here though as she has looked sharp this week, not yet dropping a set. But there is a reason Vegas has this so tight. Wozniacki is more than capable of the win here.
The last option I will point out today is the straight up punt option of Eugenie Bouchard. Bouchard is the biggest under dog on the slate and by far the lowest ranked player at 215th. But she also is playing with the least pressure and her relaxed play has led to some great tennis this tournament as she has yet to drop a set. Anisimova is the much more talented player and she SHOULD win this. But an opponent with nothing to lose and everything to gain is always dangerous.
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck and let's have some fun this Tennis season!