I am assuming this is the last episode before what is probably a 2 part finale. They teased a double elimination in the preview as well. My guess being a guys and girls elimination. Which will lead us to 3 pretty clear targets, which we will get to below.
At this point I assume most of you have been playing and/or following along, so feel free to skip pass the next few paragraphs and jump straight to the picks towards the bottom. For those new to this, go ahead and read the next few sections, which give you a basic rundown of the game itself!
As a reminder, the winners of the weekly challenge form the Tribunal and in a twist this year, they have the option to throw themselves in. This is huge because this years massive change is the fact that you can not make the finals unless you have won a purgatory elimination. So what this means is, the motivation to win the weekly challenges and make the Tribunal is HUGE. If you win, you can give yourself a chance to win a Purgatory against a potentially weaker opponent, or you can help a friend get their shot, which is what we saw week 2 when Dee made a massive mistake and gave Jenny the layup of the season.
Note: Before we dig in to this weeks episode, here is a look at the basics to the challenge.
For those new to The Challenge, first off, you are missing out! The Challenge is wildly entertaining. Featuring incredibly physical challenges, a house (amazing bunker this year!) full of pretty much crazy people, drama galore and just overall a great watch.
The Challenge concept is pretty simple. Each week contestants compete in a physical or mental challenge. Winner or winners (we saw a guy and girl winner weeks 1,3 & 6, a 3 player team in week 2, a 5 player team in week 4 & a 4 player team in week 5) are safe from elimination. Depending on the format of the challenge, additional members of the Tribunal are chosen. The Tribunal decides who will go to “Purgatory”. Purgatory is where an elimination contests takes place. Unlike Survivor, where you are voted out, on The Challenge you get a chance to compete head to head with someone with the winner staying and the loser going home.
The 2nd player who competes in Purgatory is decided on by a group vote. Historically we see rookies get voted in the first few and then alliances take form and dictate eliminations moving forward. But this season, you can’t make the finals without WINNING a Purgatory elimination. This is a HUGE change to the game that changes the core fundamentals of the game itself (in a good way IMO). Guys like Johnny Bananas and Wes have dominated seasons with their social game. Managing to avoid eliminations all season by the alliances they create. The days of skating to the finals are gone.
Now that we know the core concept, let’s take a look at some targets.
Week 1- Jenny & Rogan
week 2- Cory, Swagy C & Dee
Week 3- Bayleigh & CT
Week 4- Bear, Johnny Bananas, Big T, Aneesa, Kaycee
Week 5- Swaggy C, Josh, Jenny, Kaycee
Week 6- Jordan, Nany
Week 8- Wes, Mattie
Week 9- Wes, Corey, Dee, Nany, Bayleigh
Week 10- Dee, Wes, Rogan
Week 11- Josh, Melissa, Johnny
Week 12- Bayleigh, Dee, Fessy
Red Skull Winners (Purgatory wins)
Week 1- Jay
Week 2- Jenny
Week 3- Jay
Week 4- Dee
Week 5- Rogan
Week 6- Jenna
Week 8- Fessy, Nelson
Week 9- Anessa, Kaycee
Week 10- Johnny Bananas
Week 11- Dee
Week 12- Cory
Week 13- Melissa
Top Tier: Bayleigh, Josh, Kyle
I don’t see any way we don’t get Josh Vs. Kyle in one of the eliminations. They are the only remaining men who do not have a red skull and with only Fessy remaining as a rookie, who nobody is dumb enough to go after, it is all but certain we see these 2 go head to head. Which in that case, pick your favorite of the 2 for the captain spot. My preference of the 2 is Kyle, but the elimination game most likely is the ultimate decider in a close matchup. For the woman, Bayleigh is the only one without her red skull. Who does she go in against and does she even get voted in? I would assume yes but no clue who she will go against. Kaycee is the only rookie, but she is well liked. Melissa potentially? Or does the house try to get rid of Jenny right before the final knowing they will struggle to beat her in the final?
2nd Tier: Jenny, Melissa, Kayce
This is just pure guess work here. I am assuming we see both a woman and mens elimination tonight, which means 1 woman is going to have to go back down to purgatory who already has her red skull. This is just gut call here as the show did a good job of not really providing any hints in the preview.
Good luck everyone!