Tonight, we have a rematch of Monday’s game which ended 4-1 Flyers and had a combined 65 shots and 10 power plays. The difference here is location. Philadelphia is exceptional defensively and net-minding at home, especially Carter Hart. Hart’s road and home splits are drastic. Over 18 home games, he posts a 1.65 GAA and a .941 save percentage versus over 12 road games in those same categories, it tallies 4.01 GAA and .850 save percentage which isn’t all too surprising given the Flyers own the league’s worst road save percentage. They are allowing the 4th-most goals per game on the road at 3.66 and have seen 11 of their last 13 road games go over the number while scoring 3.38 per game in those.
Since February, Philadelphia’s advanced offensive numbers have been boosted. They are #9 in corsi for, #12 in fenwick for, #4 in goals for, #10 in high danger goals for, #7 in shooting percentage and are still 11th-worst in goal tending, so not a huge change there. On the contrast in February, Florida’s advanced defensive numbers have been horrible. The Panthers have the 2nd-most corsi against, 3rd-most fenwick against, 2nd-most goals against, 3rd-most expected goals against, 3rd-most high danger chances against, the most high danger goals against and post the 9th-worst save percentage, which is actually an improvement on their year-long ranking (7th-worst).
Sergei Bobrovsky ranks 45th out of 53 qualified goalies on the year in save percentage and has seen 4 of his last 5 home games get over the total. Over his last 16 games, he’s allowing 3.43 goals per game. On the year, they are allowing the 9th-most shots per game at 32.3 which is resulting in the 5th-most goals against per game at 3.30.
Their offensive numbers have been equally as good over the February span (#8 corsi for, #10 fenwick for, #8 goals for, #8 high danger goals for) which shouldn’t be too shocking as they’ve posted quality offensive numbers all year. They are #5 in goals per game at 3.48 and #3 at home, generating 3.82 per contest. They take the 8th-most shots per game at 32.8 and own the league’s 9th-best power play percentage and have the 7th-most power play goals. Prior to their previous home game against the Penguins (2-3 with 15 minutes left in the second period and finished 2-3), the Panthers have seen their previous 9 home games go over.
Overall, the pace they displayed in their Monday meeting coupled with a lot of the statistics covered here, our recommended play is Florida Panthers and Philadelphia Flyers over 6.5.
The Florida Panthers have played to the over in 28 of their last 41 home games.
The over is 19-7 in the Florida Panthers last 26 games when played in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 days situation.
The Philadelphia Flyers have played to the over in 8 of their last 9 road games.
Florida owns the league’s 23rd rank penalty kill percentage at 77.6%.
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