Since 2017, Portland has covered the spread in 58% of their games when holding a rest advantage over the opposition. The Trailblazers are +1.1 ATS, meaning they are covering the spread by an average of 1.1 points in a rest advantage situation. Specific to tonight’s game, when a team is playing on the second night of a back-to-back at Portland, that team always find themselves struggling. To find previous examples of this situation takes patience but I ran through a few games from the 2017-2018 season: February 27th, 2018 Sacramento @ Portland (-12) where Portland won 116-99 – March 3rd, 2018 Oklahoma City @ Portland (-4.5) where Portland won 108-100 – March 9th, 2018 Golden State @ Portland (-1) where Portland won 125-108 and on the last day of the 2018 regular season, April 11th, 2018 Utah @ Portland (-2.5) where Portland won 102-93.
The Washington Wizards will be at the Moda Center on the second night of a back-to-back tonight and although they have fared well so far this year in this situation, they are without both Thomas Bryant and Ish Smith. Surprisingly, Washington is 4-4 straight up on b2b and 7-1 against the spread. I have a ton of time on my hands so I ran through a few of those games as well: 122-124 loss @ San Antonio, 140-132 win @ Phoenix, 103-112 loss @ Miami, 108-125 loss @ Philadelphia, 128-114 win at home vs Denver – without Beal, Thomas Bryant, Hachimura and Bertans – not sure how that happened, 124-112 win @ Cleveland and a 114-96 win @ New York Knicks. Unsurprisingly, the Wizards had trouble against any mediocre team but found a little success against the teams who are under .500 for the season.
Washington has lost 12 of their last 16 road games by an average of 16.1 points per game and we really expect no different here tonight. Portland has had great results at home since the beginning of the new year, the Trailblazers are 7-2 straight up and 5-4 ATS in home games that Damian Lillard appeared in this year. Lillard will be back tonight after missing the past 6 games and although Portland saw a boost in production from both Gary Trent and CJ McCollum, they only mustered two wins during the time Dame was out. The Trailblazers are scoring 116.4 ppg at home versus 110.6 on the road, a +7.8 differential and their 1.109 offensive efficiency rating at the Moda Center ranks 7th-best in the NBA. Portland is also holding their opposition to a 44.3% field goal percentage at home the 10th-best percentage in the league.
I rather not rate Washington’s defense but if I must, we can first look at the 120.1 points per game they are allowing, dead last in the league and that number impressively moves to 123.6 when they are on the road. Teams are shooting a remarkable 48.8% against the Wizards, the second highest percentage, and that number moves to 50.1% when Washington is on the road which is again dead last in the NBA. The Wizards are also allowing teams to shoot 22.2 free throws per game and allowing a 37.6% conversion rate from 3-PT land, two categories Portland excels in as they shoot 80.0% from the charity stripe (5th) and 37.1% from downtown (5th) respectively.
Not only is tonight a favorable spot for Portland, who will receive a boost from the return of Dame, this is also a peek into Your Fielder’s Choice and the type of private plays we can provide. We are recommending a strong play on the Portland Trailblazers -7.5.