Tonight features a match-up that sets up well location wise to something we’ve backed consistently throughout the years. The Blackhawks on the road and the Coyotes at home. Not only is that a trend we’ve been following but it has been on an uptick recently as well. Chicago has averaged 4.2 goals per game over their last 9 road games while Arizona is averaging 3.8 per game over their last 8 home games (6-2 to the over).
We’re also getting the backup goalies for each team. Raanta is #22 in save percentage while their starter, Kuemper, is #1 in the NHL in this category. Chicago’s backup, Crawford, ranks #25 and Lehner has posted the 11th-best save percentage in the league.
Defensively, Chicago gives up the 2nd-most corsi-against, 3rd-most fenwick-against, 2nd-most expected goals against and the 2nd-most high danger chances. They are allowing the most shots per game in the league at 35.2. They are also giving up 3.13 per game on the road versus 3.04 at home. On the offensive end, they’re scoring 3.08 goals per game on the road versus 2.93 at home and on 3+ days rest, they’ve historically seen the over hit a high clip (15-3), which coincides with the over success this year in that spot (4-1, averaging 3.6 goals per game themselves). They also post the 10th-best corsi-for numbers.
The Coyotes give up the most corsi-against and fenwick-against, 6th-most expected goals against and 7th-most high danger chances while giving up the 11th-most shots per game at 32. Offensively, Arizona is 9th in corsi-for and 8th in fenwick-for.
A usual concern would be the fact that both teams struggle a man up and excel a man down. Arizona has the 15th-best power play percentage and the 11th-best penalty kill percentage while the Blackhawks have the 5th-worst power play percentage and 7th-best penalty kill percentage. This shouldn’t come into play much and we should see a lot of 5v5 hockey as the Coyotes give up the least penalty minutes per game and Chicago the 11th-least.
The chances should be early and often tonight, we’ll be taking Coyotes and Blackhawks OVER 6.
This match-up has seen 3 of 4 overs, 4 of 5 in Arizona
Chicago has played to 5 of 7 overall and Arizona 4 of 6 overall
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