Over the last few years we have noticed a trend with the Edmonton Oilers and how their games play out immediately following the All-Star game. Last year, they were 4-2 to the over in their first six games following the ASG and in 2018 they were 6-0 to the over. 2017 they were just 3-3 in over/under following the ASG, but again in 2016 they showed a trend to the over with a 5-1 record to the over in their first 6 following the All-Star game. It remains to be seen what their over/under record will be this year but if the first 3 games are any indicator (2-0-1 with a push at 6), we will again see a strong tendency to the over. The trend leads me to believe that Edmonton just enjoys long breaks, as they are 3-1 to the over on three or more days rest this season.
Speaking of days rest, the Arizona Coyotes have a little trend of their own this season. They have managed to enjoy a 9-1 record when playing on two days rest and they are 6-0 on two days rest following a loss. Antti Raanta will get the start between the pipes for the Coyotes, he has seen the over hit in six of his last eight home starts and 8 of his last 13 games overall. On the other end of the ice will most likely stand Mikko Koskinen, who has been very average all year, not good but not bad by any means. However, since December 1st Koskinen owns a -3.75 GSAA (goals saved above average) which is 60th out of the 75 goalies who have played this season. Comparatively, Mike Smith’s -7.04 is 72nd and Raanta owns a -5.04 GSAA which ranks 66th.
The Arizona Coyotes lead the league in a few stats you really do not want to be leading the league in. They lead the NHL in corsi against (2576) and fenwick against (1952), they also rank 3rd-worst in shots against and scoring chances against. Offensively, Edmonton will be able to take advantage of the lapse in defense, as they rank 11th in goals for per game (3.23), and also 11th in goals for on the road (3.07) – ironically they are also 11th in goals against per game at 3.08.
Special teams may not play a role in goals, as both teams own top-10 penalty kills and Arizona’s 6.54 penalty minutes per game is the 30th-least out of 31 teams. However, there were 7 penalties in the most recent matchup, three of those by Arizona, who had to face Edmonton’s top-rated power play unit which converts at a 29.5% clip.
Take the OVER 5.5
The Arizona Coyotes have played to the over in 11 of their last 15 home games.
Since being called up for the Oilers 11 games ago, Kailer Yamamoto has 5 goals and 5 assists, including a goal against the Coyotes on January 18th.
Oliver Ekman-Larsson will miss his second straight game for the Coyotes tonight, he has just 22 points on the year.
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