CFB Breakdown 11/5

In CFB by devinLeave a Comment

Hello CFB fans! We are on the back stretch of the season, which means MAC Tuesday night football! Never going to be the sexiest slates as your talking about lower level division 1 football, but who doesn’t love a little football action on a Tuesday? Let’s dig in.

Kent State @ Toledo (-7) Total of 62

QB

Dustin Crum- Crum has had a very up and down season. He has struggled against solid pass defenses but done very well in the better matchups. Against Miami Ohio and Akron, 2 teams giving up less than 215 yards through the air a game, Crum had 18 or less DK points. Against BGSU and Ohio, 2 teams giving up over 215 yards through the air a game, he had over 30 DK points in each game. Today he gets a Toledo defense who is giving up a slate high 272 yards a game through the air. Stats suggest ceiling game.

Eli Peters- Peters is actually the 3rd string QB who has been thrown in to duty due to injuries to the top two QBs. Last week in Peters first start, Toledo went all in on the run game, something I expect here as well. Peters did have 2 TDs to score 16 points. 16 feels like his ceiling with the lack of usage.

RB

Will Matthews- Emerging as the lead back the last 3 weeks. I think there are better plays to target on this slate.

Bryant Koback/Shakif Seymour– I mentioned Toledo leaning on the run with Peters starting. Last week these 2 combined for 53 carries! Koback led the way with 32 carries for a monster 259 yards and 2 TDs, good for 39.9 DK points. To add to it this week, Kent State is getting crushed on the run with a slate high 249.5 yards per game allowed on the ground. Koback is a LOCK and Seymour is worth considering if you need value.

WR

Bryce Mitchell/Danzel McKinley-Lewis/Drew Rosi- Lewis led the team in receiving last week with 85 yards while Mitchell and Rosi each scored a TD. Again, I expect this to be a rush heavy attack, really limiting the upside of any WR here.

Isaiah McKoy/Kavious Price/Mike Carrigan- These 3 are the clear top targets. McKoy has been super consistent this year with double digit DK points in every single game but 1 (against Wisconsin). Price has 5 plus catches in 3 of his last 4 while Carrigan has flashed 20+ point upside twice. McKoy is the safe play here with Price next.

Ball State @ Western Michigan (-6.5) Total of 63.5

QB

Drew Plitt- Plitt has been trending the wrong way. Over his first 4 games of the year, Plitt averaged 44 attempts a game. Over his last 4, 20.75. The good news? The TD’s are still there with 6 passing TDs and 3 rushing TD’s over those last 4 games. I think we see the 20 DK point range here and some ownership on what is a very weak QB slate. Game flow is also in Plitts favor.

Jon Wassink- Wassink’s season is actually almost identical to Plitts. Wassink has had his attempts drop off the last few weeks, failing to eclipse the 200 yard mark in the last 3 games. This has a lot to do with the emergence of a star RB, who we will talk about below.

RB

Caleb Huntley/Walter Fletcher- Don’t let last weeks dud scare you off Huntley. Hutnley was dealing with a slight injury but is reportedly back to full speed this week. Prior to last week, Huntley had rushed for at least 119 yards in 3 straight games. Walter Fletcher was the beneficiary of Huntleys injury last week and he responded with a big game of his own. Fletcher should fall back to the number 2 role, but should still be looking at 10 touches or so. Huntley is the cash play, Fletcher the lower owned GPP play.

LeVante Bellamy- I teased the emergence of a star RB above and here he is. Bellamy is averaging 117 yards a game on 19 attempts a game. 3 straight games over 30 DK points and a total of 5 30+ games on the season. Just Lock him in and move on.

WR

Justin Hall/Riley Miller- While the Ball state passing attack has seen its usage drop, these 2 have emerged as the top 2 targets. They are averaging within 1 yard of each other on the year and both have 5 TDs on the year. Hall is averaging slightly more targets on the year but is also pricier.

Giovanni Ricci/Skyy Moore- We already mentioned the lack of volume with the passing attack and obviously your WR’s will feel that hit as well. The only 2 WR’s that have shown any type of consistency are these two. Ricci has been far and away the most consistent with double digit DK points in 7 of 9 games this season. Moore has been much more erratic but seemed to get back on track last week after 2 straight weeks with only 1 catch each.

Overall I am prioritizing RB’s here with Bellamy and Koback being the first two players I click. Good luck!

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