Welcome back CFB fans! We have a 2 game Thursday slate so lets dig right in!
Louisiana (-14) @ Coastal Carolina Total of 58.5
Louisiana are big favorites here, which plays perfectly in to their rush heavy offense. Look for them to lean heavily on their 3 headed rushing attack, especially if they can take an early lead, forcing Coastal to air it out. Game flow- Louisiana rushing attack, Coastal passing attack.
Levi Lewis- Not asked to do much outside of managing the game. Lewis hasn’t thrown for over 200 yards in a game since week 1. Coastal Carolina gives up a slate low 175 yards throw the air a game. Lewis is way over priced on Fanduel and unplayable there. Not much interest here.
Bryce Carpenter- Carpenter has started the last two games for injured Fred Payton. Payton was healthy last week but Carpenter has grabbed the job and ran with it. Carpenter is the starter here and the sites haven’t adjusted to it, pricing Carpenter cheaper than Payton on Draftkings and only slightly more on Fanduel. All Carpenter has done the last two weeks is go 43-59 (73%) for 381 yards, 2 TDs & 0 interceptions. Add in 38 rush attempts for 107 yards and another TD. He has fumbled each game, but he is simply too cheap here for his usage and in a game where they are projected to be playing from behind.
Elijah Mitchell/Trey Ragas/Raymond Calais- Our worst nightmare for DFS, a 3 headed timeshare! Mitchell and Ragas lead the way here with each averaging 85+ yards per game on double digit carries and over a TD per game. Calais still averages an impressive 70 yards a game on single digit carries, but is tough to trust as the third option. Mitchell is the most trustworthy with double digit DK points every game this season but 1 (which was 9.8).
CJ Marable- Speaking of consistent, Marable has double digit DK points every single game this season. His production has dropped a tad with the emergence of Bryce Carpenter, but you can pretty much pencil Marable in for 15+ points here.
Ja’Marcus Bradley- Really the only viable, consistent WR for Louisiana. Bradley is averaging 62 yards a game on 6.4 targets as well as .57 TD’s a game.
Jaivon Heiligh/Isaiah Likely- Heiligh was the beneficiary of the change at QB with a season high 12 catches for 107 yards last week. He has emerged as the top WR for Coastal with double digit DK points in 4 of his last 5. Isaiah Likely has also benefited from the change at QB, picking up double digit points and a TD in both of Carpenters starts.
Temple (-1.5) @ South Florida Game Total of 49.5
Projecting to be not only a much tighter game, but a much lower scoring game. Vegas projects this game to be in the mid 20’s for both teams. Game flow- both teams project to run normal offense in a tight game.
Anthony Russo- Russo comes in with a slate high 234 yards per game through the air, but has literally 0 rushing upside…as in he literally averages -6 yards a game. He takes on a USF team which has been solid against the pass (185 yards against a game) but struggled with the ground game (199 yards a game). Probably looking at 15 points from Russo here, which has been his normal output for the last 6 games.
Jordan McCloud- McCloud got banged up last game, but reports are he is good to go. He has been anything but consistent this year, flashing huge upside with a 38 point DK performance in week 3 and a low floor with a 3.6 DK point performance week 8 against a good defense in Navy. Temple does give up a slate high 235 yards per game through the air and 402 yards of total offense a game, so you would like to say ceiling game here. But I can’t say that with any confidence.
Re’Mahn Davis- Davis averages a slate high 16.88 rushing attempts a game for 82 yards a game. He is up against a USF team who is giving up just short of 200 yards a game. This has all the makings of a ceiling game for Davis.
Jordan Cronkrite- With Johnny Ford out, Cronkrite has found himself as a feature back. Cronkrite has rushed for over 100 yards in 3 of his last 4 games, good for 21.1, 30.8 and 30.8 DK points in those 3 contests.
Branden Mack/Isaiah Wright- Branden Mack is the clear number 1 option for Temple. He has 4 games over 20 DK points, 1 over 30 and only 2 under 16 (both of which were early in the season). He is one of the safer plays on the slate. Wright hasn’t been nearly as consistent and has especially struggle the last 2 with 4.5 and 5.1 DK points. But, he has flashed upside this year and makes for an intriguing GPP play.
Randall St. Felix- Really hard to trust the WR’s on a team when the QB play is so wildly inconsistent. I think there are better plays in the same price range. But if you’re running multiple lineups and want to differentiate yourself in a GPP, stack Felix with McCloud.
Good luck CFB fans!