MNF SINGLE GAME SHOWDOWN STRATEGY DOLPHINS @ STEELERS

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VEGAS

 

GAME SCRIPTS

It will be easy to follow everyone else and build a 5-1 lineup assuming Pittsburgh pillages Miami, especially looking at the Vegas odds.  Giving Miami 14.5 points is being very optimistic for a tanking team. If you want to cash in a GPP (which Showdown slates are made for) you need to leave money on the table and be contrarian.  Yes everything does line up for James Conner tonight and horrible Dolphins defense that allows the most DKFP to running backs of any team in the NFL.  Conner will and should be the Captain/MVP in most builds but where do you go from there?

  1. Like most weeks, the expectation is Miami will be trailing late.  Game script sets them up to be throwing late and playing catch up.  Preston Williams or Davante Parker fit in a flex spot.  Williams has been targeted 33 times in last 4 games while Parker seems to be Fitzpatrick’s new go-to-guy.  Along with Fitzpatrick the Steelers DST has to be in play since the Dolphins average 6.3 points a game and the Steelers DST has scored at least 11 DKFP in four straight.  A huge spread does favor a run heavy approach by Pittsburgh
  2. Pittsburgh takes it easy on Conner, who has been hurting as of late, and they destroy Miami through the air.  The Steeler coaching staff shows some confidence in Rudolph and lets him air it out against a weak Miami defense that shows no resistance.  JuJu plus cheaper Pittsburgh receiving options (Washington/Johnson).
  3. Miami puts up more of a fight than expected and FitzMagic appears for one more night in a storied career. Touchdown passes to Parker (who gets an aging Joe Haden who is no longer a shut down guy) and Williams (who gets a mediocre Artie Burns) add to GPP success.
  4. Steelers dominate with a strong Defense and running game.  Dolphins with garbage time points through the air.  Use a lesser owned player in the garbage time scenario- Allen Hurns or Albert Wilson will fit.
  5. Shootout City.  We all know that Fitzpatrick can chuck the ball and that Miami’s defense is the worst.  Rudolph also throws for 2-3 TDS’s.  Both teams find success running the ball- so maybe differentiate with Kalen Ballage over Mark Walton, who will be heavily owned
  6. Play either Rudolph or Conner in MVP/Capt and fill in the gaps.  JuJu has some upside depending on how the Steelers approach the game with big play ability.  This could be his 2 touchdown game.

TOP PLAYS

This is not just a rankings.  It’s a list of top plays, value plays and some interesting plays that may just win you some money in a GPP.

  • James Connor- #BadDefense
  • Benny Snell- With Samuels GTD Snell becomes value at only $2400 and interesting value Captain
  • Devante Parker- Fitz’s new go-to-guy and gets Haden (my how times have changed)..Captain?
  • Kalen Ballage- see above.  Only $1600 for a player that has scored B2B weeks and everyone else will be on Walton
  • Preston Williams- He or Parker will score points tonight.  But which one is it?
  • Diontae Johnson- Deep threat only needs one big play to pay off his value
  • Mason Rudolph- Easiest matchup of his young career
  • PITT DST- Will be popular Capt/MVP
  • Albert Wilson/Allen Hurns- Flip a coin..one will score in garbage time
  • Mike Gesicki- Steelers don’t cover tight ends
  • Mark Walton- will get all the touches and high ownership..another possible contrarian captain
  • JuJu Smith- Schuster- Can score from anywhere
  • Chris Boswell- will be busy kicking extra points.  Add in two field goals and he has one of the high scores on the slate

 

 

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