NHL DFS Top Plays (Free) 1/15

In NHL by devinLeave a Comment

2 game slate. Let’s take an in depth look.

Vegas data courtesy of fantasylabs.com

Just based off of Vegas data, we can predict a few things. Montreal and St. Louis skaters will be popular while Carey Price and Jordan Binnington will be popular in net. Let’s take a look and see if our numbers support this.

10 Day Report

Above is our new 10 day report. It features some basic stats to give you a snap shot of how a team has been performing over the last 10 days. This typically means the last 4-6 games for a team. We then take all of these stats and rank them, which is on the far right.

We can see our 10 day report matches up fairly well with Vegas totals. Next, lets take a look at today’s projected goalies home/away splits.

Numbers based on home/away splits

A few things stand out here. 1. Binnington on paper is clearly the top option. Not only does he have the best individual numbers, but Philly has a slate low 2.54 goals per game on the road. But, as the 10 day data showed us above, the Blues aren’t giving up many shots, which potentially caps Binnington’s upside. Binnington is the safest play, but may not score the most due to a potential lack of saves. 2. The numbers support Price as the 2nd goalie option. His numbers aren’t nearly as good as Binnington’s, but he is coming off back to back gems.

Now lets dig in to some offensive stats and find some targets.

DVP (defense vs. position)

These numbers are how the opposing team ranks against each position. So today, St. Louis is top 5 in the league in least fantasy points allowed to every position. Aka, they are awesome defensively. So a simple way to utilize this chart is, green is a good matchup, red is a bad matchup.

Line Production

Total points by line + defensive pairs based on home/away splits

Now that we have a very detailed look at some numbers, time for some plays.

St. Louis PP (power play) 1- St. Louis is hot and it starts with the power play. 4 of 5 members of the top power play unit have averaged over a point per game over the last month, with only Ryan O’Reilly averaging under. Schenn, Pietrangelo and Schwartz have also averaged over a point per game over the last week.

St. Louis 3- The 3rd line is red hot and dirt cheap. All 3 are on a point per game pace over the last 7 games, with all 3 have 7 points over the last 7 games.

Shea Weber- Weber is in the middle of a point drought but positive regression is sure to happen any day and taking on a Chicago team on the 2nd night of a back to back is as good a spot as any for Weber to break out of his slump.

Ilya Kovalchuk- With Gallagher out, Kovalchuk is playing massive minutes and is on the top line and top power play unit.

Dominik Kubalik- Phew Chicago seems to have found themselves a budding star in Kubalik. After another 2 goal night last night, Kubalik is now riding a 5 game goal streak with 7 goals over that stretch. Last night he took 9 shots.

Patrick Kane- Simply put, Kane is the best player on this slate by a wide margin. He is averaging 1.45 points per game (based on home/away split). Next closest on the entire slate is David Perron at .88 points per game.

Overall this isn’t exactly a sexy slate. St. Louis is hot and is my priority here. Montreal may have the higher total and gets the best goalie matchup against Crawford, but Montreal features very spread out scoring that is tough to predict. I like some Chicago exposure with Kane and Kubalik specifically and you can even play them against Price. On a small slate, a player or 2 against your goalie is fine.

Good luck!

Be sure to utilize our NHL Cheat Sheet to help you fill out your lineup. It features everything you need all in one place. Check the cheat sheet closer to lock for projected ownership as well!

Good luck!

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