Welcome back Tennis fans! The 2020 season is here and we are starting you off with coverage from day 1. Our industry leading cheat sheet features all the stats you need to build a quality lineup every slate. A few things to remember with Tennis.
- Super difficult sport. One of, if not the most high variance sport. So play smart!
- Slate start times are all over the place, including some middle of the night starts. So be mindful of start times and the fact that a late scratch is potential with Tennis.
- Tennis is not like most sports where you have to pay up for the top plays. There are no James Harden's in Tennis where 1 player can score 40 points more than anybody else on the slate. It is rarely going to be worth paying all the way up for a player unless the slate allows it.
- Be careful about players who double fault a lot.
- Players with high ace upside AND favorites (as long as the price isn't outrageous) are usually top tier plays.
Day 3 featured as few upsets as you will see in Tennis. Which was absolutely great if you utilized the cheat sheet to build an all favorites lineup! Something I suggest when the slate is as open as yesterdays was and featured multiple ways to build all favorite lineups. Keep in mind that I am providing potential upset picks to help you open up salary if you feel you need it. They are still under dogs after all and are far from a lock to pull off the upset. Let's dig in to today.
John Isner- Remember my rant about ace plays the other day? Well Isner is an example of an ace play favorite with an affordable price tag. Favorite being the key word. Expect Isner to be chalk tonight and for good reason. He has a slate high 1.61 aces per game on hard court while his opponent, Kyle Edmund, gives up .71 aces per game. As a bonus, Isner rarely double faults at only .14 per game, lowest on the slate. Lastly, Isner is 23-14 (62%) on main draw hard court matches over the last 12 months while Edmund is 9-12 (43%).
Note: There are typically a few ways to build your Tennis lineups. 1. All favorites. In order to take down a GPP, you need all 6 of your players to win their match. For cash games, you can get away with a loss or two. It is usually possible to build an all favorites lineup, but you will be looking at a few pick em or slight favorite plays to make it work. 2. Take a shot on a punt who you think has a shot to win. This opens up salary to get a few more big favorites and is certainly a viable strategy for cash games. For GPP’s, you are hurting your chances unless that punt play picks up the win.
With the above note in mind, we are going to take a look at 2 cheaper under dog options who have a shot to win and open up some salary. If you wish to go the all favorites route, (which is fine!) utilize our cheat sheet to help easily accomplish this.
Draftkings pricing is once again a bit softer and allows for multiple all favorite builds with Isner being your smallest favorite. As I mentioned above, I suggest that strategy when the slate presents it. But if you choose to go with an under dog, lets take a look at a potential upset pick.
Alex Bolt- Man Alex Bolt really loves playing in front of his home crowd. He made a surprising run at the Australian Open last year and is following that up with a deep run here as a wild card. He has yet to lose a set and is taking on the sruggling Felix Auger Aliassime. Felix was able to get by Duckworth last round, but not with out some struggles as he had to fight of a set point in the first.
Marketa Vondrousova- Vondrousova missed the end of last season due to injury but has picked up right where she left off. Over the last 12 months on hard court main draw matches, she is 11-3 (79%). Barty is an impressive 30-9 (77%) and is 3-0 lifetime against Vondrousova. But Barty has been struggling with consistency for a few months now. She still has managed to win a lot of matches despite these struggles but Vondrousova is skilled enough to take advantage if Barty is not on her game. Vondrousova has only lost 3 games this tournament and should be full of confidence. While Barty is the better player, don't be surprised if she gets upset here
Keep in mind if you decide to pick an under dog, it is important your safe picks all come through to make the punt worth it!
To help fill out your lineup, grab our amazing cheat sheet below! As I mentioned above, our cheat sheet features all the stats and info you need to build a quality lineup and compete nightly in a difficult sport. Good luck and let's have some fun this Tennis season!